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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-09 07:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM AST Sat Sep 9 the center of Jose was located near 17.2, -59.6 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 940 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 150 mph.
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Hurricane Jose Public Advisory Number 15A
2017-09-09 07:52:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090552 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Jose Intermediate Advisory Number 15A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 200 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 ...JOSE STILL A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 59.6W ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * Sint Maarten * St. Martin * St. Barthelemy A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Antigua * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Montserrat, St Kitts, and Nevis * British Virgin Islands * St. Thomas and St. John A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Jose was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 59.6 West. Jose is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the core of Jose will pass close to or just east of the northern Leeward Islands later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Jose is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuation in intensity, up or down, could occur during the next 24 hours. Afterward, gradual weakening is expected to occur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters is 940 mb (27.76 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area today. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area today. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas by this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area in the northeastern Leeward Islands by this morning and in the watch area in the Virgin Islands by tonight. RAINFALL: Jose is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches in the Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Anguilla, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. Jose is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the Virgin Islands and Dominica. This rainfall will maintain any ongoing flooding and may cause additional life-threatening flooding. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in the hurricane warning areas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting portions of the Leeward Islands. These swells are expected to continue for a couple of days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Hurricane Jose Graphics
2017-09-09 04:48:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 02:48:52 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2017 02:48:52 GMT
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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-09 04:42:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090242 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 08 2017 The Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating Jose this evening and found that the hurricane is even a little stronger than previously estimated. An average of the aircraft's flight level winds, SFMR values, and dropsonde data support an intensity of 135 kt, making Jose very near category 5 strength. It is surprising that Jose is as strong as the aircraft data suggests, since the hurricane's satellite appearance has degraded a little during the last several hours. Jose is moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected overnight and on Saturday, taking the core of Jose just east of the northern Leeward Islands. The hurricane is forecast to slow down and turn northward in 3 to 4 days when it moves around the ridge and toward a large mid- to upper-level low over the north Atlantic. The models then indicate that the upper low will bypass Jose causing it to drift eastward or meander at the end of the forecast period. The track forecast is fairly close to the previous advisory and lies nearest to the various consensus models. Fluctuations in strength are likely overnight and on Saturday due to the potential for eyewall replacement cycles, but Jose is expected to remain at category 4 strength when it is closest to the northern Leeward Islands. After that time, the models insist that a slow weakening trend should occur through the remainder of the forecast period due to an increase in wind shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the guidance in the short term, but then falls in line with the HCCA and ICON consensus models from 48 to 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.9N 59.3W 135 KT 155 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 17.8N 60.8W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 19.1N 62.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 20.7N 64.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 22.4N 66.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 25.3N 68.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 26.8N 68.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 27.7N 66.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-09 04:42:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND JOSE EVEN STRONGER... ...ALMOST A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 8 the center of Jose was located near 16.9, -59.3 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 938 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 155 mph.
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