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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 25
2019-09-18 16:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 181431 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...KIKO MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND STRENGTHENING... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 126.7W ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 126.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A westward track is likely later today, followed by a west-northwest motion on Thursday and Friday, and a westward motion on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko could become a hurricane again on Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-18 10:48:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 08:48:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 09:49:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 24
2019-09-18 10:47:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180847 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko is trying to recover from all of the shear that affected it for the past few days. An earlier microwave pass showed that most of the convection was confined to the southern semicircle. Over the past few hours, deep convection has been looking a little more organized near the storm's center. Whether or not this is the start of a trend is too early to tell, and a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates indicate that the initial intensity remains near 45 kt. Kiko continues to move southwest, or 240/04 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. Kiko will be steered in a mean westerly trajectory for the next several days by mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone. Some northward or southward deviations in the forward motion are expected from time to time due to fluctuations in the strength of the ridge. The official forecast is very close to the previous one, and near the multi-model track consensus aids. Kiko is expected to remain in a low shear environment and will soon will be moving over higher oceanic heat content. This should result in gradual strengthening. In a few days, the cyclone will begin to move into a drier and more stable environment which should limit any further intensification during the forecast period. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24
2019-09-18 10:46:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 180846 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 9(11) 18(29) 14(43) 6(49) 2(51) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 3(12) 1(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 14(20) 7(27) 2(29) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 29(42) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-18 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO STOPS WEAKENING AS IT HEADS SOUTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Kiko was located near 16.5, -125.9 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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