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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-18 16:33:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 14:33:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 15:45:10 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 25
2019-09-18 16:32:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181432 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko appears to be stronger this morning with very deep convection near the center, although the cloud pattern is somewhat distorted. The initial wind speed is conservatively raised to 50 kt on this advisory, since the subjective satellite estimates have been running a little hot recently. The storm continues to move west-southwest, or 245/05 kt. A track resembling on roller coaster (which seems appropriate for the ups and downs trying to forecast Kiko this past week) is anticipated during the next several days due to fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge to the north. The guidance is actually in pretty good agreement on this unusual track, so little change was made to the previous NHC forecast. Kiko is expected to remain in a low-shear and marginally warm-water environment for the next few days. After that time, some dry air entrainment and a possible increase in shear could level off the intensity. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, adjusted for the higher initial wind speed, but this is a fairly low confidence forecast at long range due to some large changes in the guidance at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 16.0N 126.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2019-09-18 16:32:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 181432 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) 16(47) 8(55) 2(57) 1(58) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 11(16) 4(20) X(20) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 25(29) 29(58) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 16(22) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 25
2019-09-18 16:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 181431 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.7W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 126.7W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 126.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.9N 127.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 15.8N 128.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.1N 129.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.6N 129.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 131.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.0N 133.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 15.5N 136.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 126.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-18 16:31:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO MOVING OVER WARMER WATER AND STRENGTHENING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Kiko was located near 16.0, -126.7 with movement WSW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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