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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 26
2019-09-18 22:50:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 182050 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko has apparently continued to strengthen. Subjective and objective Dvorak intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were all 55 kt, so the intensity is raised to that value. At least slow additional strengthening is possible during the next few days. Wind shear that previously affected the cyclone seems to have decreased, and Kiko is far enough south that it should remain over fairly warm waters for the next couple of days. The HWRF and HMON models were not available for this forecast, but previous runs showed the potential for possibly significant strengthening during the next couple of days. On the other hand, the statistical guidance is much lower. Without any new dynamical intensity guidance available, it seems wise to make no large changes to the intensity forecast this cycle, but it is slightly higher in the short term to account for the higher initial intensity. In general, the NHC forecast is a little above the intensity guidance at all forecast hours. The initial motion is 250/6 kt, but the tropical storm is still forecast to turn westward within the next few hours. Kiko is still expected to snake its way westward during the next 5 days as a mid-level ridge to the north builds, weakens, and then builds again. The global models all show this general scenario and vary mainly in the forward speed of the cyclone. Very little change was made to the NHC forecast, which is near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.8N 127.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1800Z 15.8N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0600Z 16.2N 129.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1800Z 16.7N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/1800Z 16.0N 134.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2019-09-18 22:49:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 182049 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 1 21(22) 27(49) 6(55) 5(60) 2(62) 1(63) 15N 130W 50 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 10(17) 3(20) X(20) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 35(42) 19(61) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 12(25) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-18 22:48:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 the center of Kiko was located near 15.8, -127.3 with movement WSW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 26
2019-09-18 22:48:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 182048 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE AGAIN... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 127.3W ABOUT 1235 MI...1985 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 127.3 West. The tropical storm is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A westward track is expected later this afternoon or evening, followed by a west-northwest motion on Thursday and Friday. Kiko is then forecast to turn westward once again by Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated, and Kiko is forecast to become a hurricane again on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 26
2019-09-18 22:48:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 182048 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.3W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.3W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 15.8N 129.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.2N 129.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.7N 130.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 16.0N 134.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N 127.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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