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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-13 22:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 20:44:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2019 20:44:51 GMT
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kiko
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-09-13 22:43:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132043 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko has been battling some entrained dry air today, and convection is just now beginning to re-wrap around the center of circulation. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB supports an initial advisory intensity of 35 kt. An upper trough to the west of Kiko may continue to force dry air into the cyclone's circulation in the near term. Despite this dry air, the cyclone is expected to remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment for the next couple of days, which should allow for some strengthening. By late this weekend, Kiko is expected to be near hurricane intensity. After 48 hours, Kiko is forecast to begin to move over cooler waters, and after 72 hours, westerly wind shear is expected to begin to impact the cyclone. These factors should cause Kiko to steadily weaken late in the forecast period. Kiko is moving westward, or 280/8 kt, to the south of a broad mid-level ridge. A general west to west-northwestward motion should continue for the next several days. There was a notable shift in the guidance this afternoon, suggesting that the cyclone will move with a little slower forward motion than previously indicated. The tightly clustered consensus guidance also made a slight shift to the west. The official forecast is a little slower and to the left than the previous one, but is on the right side of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-13 22:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -115.2 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 6
2019-09-13 22:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132043 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...KIKO MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 115.2W ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 115.2 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to be near hurricane strength late this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-09-13 22:43:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 132043 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 3( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 120W 34 X 4( 4) 18(22) 19(41) 4(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 14(46) 2(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) X(14) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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