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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 7
2019-09-14 04:41:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140241 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 Kiko may have finally kicked the dry air out of its inner core. There has been a dramatic expansion of cold cloud tops extending from the center of the cyclone, and recent microwave imagery confirms that convective activity is much greater than it was 24 h ago. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have gone up and now support an initial intensity of 45 kt. This value is fairly uncertain, and it certainly possible that Kiko has not strengthened quite that much at this point. It has been very difficult to identify the low-level center of Kiko, and the initial motion is a very uncertain 285/8 kt. In the short term, the initial position may actually be the main source of uncertainty in the forecast. The cyclone should head westward or west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next couple of days, and the guidance is very tightly clustered. Beginning Monday, Kiko could turn west-northwestward or northwestward if it substantially deepens, as shown by the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models, or it could just accelerate generally westward, as depicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. The spread grows quite quickly by the end of the forecast period, and the GFS and ECMWF are nearly 500 n mi apart by day 5. The NHC forecast splits these 2 scenarios as a course of least regret, and follows the multi-model consensus closely through the end of the period. Despite its recent convective resurgence, there is still a fair amount of dry air surrounding the cyclone. The environment appears otherwise favorable for strengthening, and most of the guidance calls for additional strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted a little higher, given Kiko's current convective structure, and once again shows Kiko becoming a hurricane in a couple of days. Whatever peak the cyclone reaches, it will likely begin to weaken by day 4 as it encounters cooler waters, drier air, and potentially increased shear. The official intensity forecast is near HCCA throughout the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 17.1N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-14 04:41:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO FINALLY STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 the center of Kiko was located near 17.1, -116.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 7
2019-09-14 04:41:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140241 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019 ...KIKO FINALLY STARTS TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 116.3W ABOUT 575 MI...930 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 116.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwest or west motion at a similar forward speed is expected through early next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Kiko is expected to be at or near hurricane strength by the end of the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2019-09-14 04:41:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 140241 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 116.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 5 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 2(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 34 2 9(11) 17(28) 13(41) 4(45) X(45) 1(46) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 38(44) 10(54) 1(55) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 8(20) X(20) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 7
2019-09-14 04:40:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140240 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 116.3W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 115.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 125NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 116.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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