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Hurricane ERICK Graphics
2013-07-07 01:57:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 23:57:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 21:05:22 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-07 01:57:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 5:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of ERICK was located near 18.3, -105.4 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane ERICK Public Advisory Number 10A
2013-07-07 01:57:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062357 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 500 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...ERICK PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 105.4W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 430 MI...695 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.4 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TONIGHT... AND ERICK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY LATE SUNDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN... COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane ERICK Graphics
2013-07-06 23:11:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 20:48:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 21:05:22 GMT
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Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-07-06 22:46:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 062046 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT ERICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A BANDING EYE FEATURE HAS APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES WHILE A MID-LEVEL EYE HAS BEEN PRESENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS BEING MAINTAINED BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 KT FROM TAFB AND UW-CIMSS ADT...AND 65 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS A STEADY 310/08 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ERICK MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THERE IS A DISTINCT BIFURCATION IN THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF AND UKMET MODELS TAKING ERICK OVER OR CLOSE TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...WHEREAS THE GFS...GFS-ENSEMBLE... AND NAVGEM MODELS TAKE A WEAKENING ERICK MORE WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS. GIVEN THAT ERICK IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SUB-23C SSTS AFTER 48 HOURS AND LIKELY BECOMING A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TCVE THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND THEN LEANS MORE TOWARD THE WEAKER AND WESTWARD SOLUTION OF THE GFS MODEL. ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST TRACK STILL KEEPS THE CORE OF ERICK OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER AND STRONGER WINDS VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. ERICK COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE BIT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE NEARBY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR RAPID STRENGTHENING FROM OCCURRING. BY 36 HOURS... HOWEVER...SHARPLY DECREASING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD BEGIN TO INDUCE STEADY IF NOT RAPID WEAKENING DESPITE THE OTHERWISE VERY FAVORABLE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT THAT ERICK WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS IVCN AND ICON. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 18.1N 105.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 22.2N 110.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 23.8N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z 24.8N 118.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z 24.8N 121.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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