je.st
news
Tag: erick
Summary for Hurricane ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-06 19:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... As of 11:00 AM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of ERICK was located near 17.8, -104.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Tags: summary
hurricane
erick
ep5ep052013
Hurricane ERICK Public Advisory Number 9A
2013-07-06 19:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 061737 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 9A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1100 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...ERICK CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.8N 104.5W ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.5 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY... AND ERICK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATE SUNDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN... COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane ERICK Graphics
2013-07-06 17:11:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 14:55:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Jul 2013 15:05:22 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
erick
hurricane graphics
Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-07-06 16:57:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 061457 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT ERICK HAS BECOME A HURRICANE. THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER-ALIGNED VERTICALLY...WITH LITTLE POSITIONAL DIFFERENCE NOW OBSERVED ON THE 37/91 GHZ MICROWAVE CHANNELS. IN ADDITION...A RAGGED EYE APPEARS TO BE FORMING ON THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGES. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT...A BLEND OF THE TAFB/SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WITH A BIT MORE WEIGHT ON THE TAFB FIX. MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 310/8. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO EXPECTED TO STEER ERICK GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE MOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS ERICK NEARS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DUE TO A STRONGER RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO MOVES THE STORM ONSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO BUT REMAINS AN OUTLIER SOLUTION. THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE FOR THIS PACKAGE. WHILE THE NEW FORECAST STILL KEEPS THE CENTER OFFSHORE...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A CHALLENGE SINCE ERICK IS NOT THAT FAR OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. THE HURRICANE COULD INTENSIFY A LITTLE MORE TODAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATERS WITHOUT MUCH SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE TOMORROW DUE TO ERICK MOVING ACROSS COOLER WATERS AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH LAND. A MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE AFTER THE WEEKEND WITH MUCH COLDER WATERS IN THE PATH OF ERICK ALONG WITH DRIER MORE STABLE AIR. THE NHC FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 17.7N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 105.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 19.7N 106.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 22.1N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 10/1200Z 25.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z 25.0N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2013-07-06 16:55:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 061454 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 3 24 41 50 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 6 17 43 43 40 TROPICAL STORM 10 42 57 62 32 15 10 HURRICANE 90 55 36 18 2 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 78 46 29 15 2 X X HUR CAT 2 11 7 5 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 2 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 75KT 70KT 65KT 55KT 35KT 25KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 28(41) 6(47) X(47) X(47) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 26(38) 4(42) 1(43) X(43) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 3(11) X(11) X(11) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) 7(24) X(24) X(24) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) MAZATLAN 34 1 2( 3) 8(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN BLAS 34 2 11(13) 7(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) P VALLARTA 34 6 33(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) P VALLARTA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 82 6(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) BARRA NAVIDAD 50 12 4(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BARRA NAVIDAD 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 72 3(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) MANZANILLO 50 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 25(27) 22(49) 1(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Sites : [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] next »