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Summary for Hurricane ERICK (EP5/EP052013)

2013-07-06 22:45:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ERICK MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of ERICK was located near 18.1, -105.0 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane ERICK Public Advisory Number 10

2013-07-06 22:45:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 062045 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...ERICK MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 105.0W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED TODAY... AND ERICK SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATE SUNDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN GUERRERO...SOUTHERN MICHOACAN... COLIMA...AND SOUTHERN JALISCO MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number public advisory hurricane

Hurricane ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

2013-07-06 22:45:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 062045 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 9 31 49 46 TROP DEPRESSION X 1 9 30 43 39 42 TROPICAL STORM 24 40 64 54 25 12 12 HURRICANE 76 59 26 8 1 X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 71 48 21 7 1 X X HUR CAT 2 5 8 4 1 X X X HUR CAT 3 1 2 1 X X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 70KT 70KT 60KT 45KT 30KT 20KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 2( 2) 21(23) 16(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 2( 2) 18(20) 13(33) 2(35) X(35) X(35) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) 2(18) 1(19) X(19) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAZATLAN 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) SAN BLAS 34 2 8(10) 2(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) P VALLARTA 34 13 15(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 78 1(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) MANZANILLO 34 45 1(46) 1(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 32(34) 6(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) ISLAS MARIAS 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number speed wind hurricane

Hurricane ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 10

2013-07-06 22:45:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 062045 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 2100 UTC SAT JUL 06 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.0W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 105.0W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 104.7W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 106.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.3N 109.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.2N 110.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.8N 114.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.8N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.8N 121.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 105.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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