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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 17A
2013-07-08 19:52:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 081752 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1100 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 ...ERICK PASSING VERY NEAR THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 110.5W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY. ERICK IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics
2013-07-08 17:13:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 14:44:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 15:06:22 GMT
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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-07-08 16:43:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 081443 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE GENERAL STRUCTURE OF ERICK HAS NOT CHANGED SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...HOWEVER THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A LITTLE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED...AND AN 0502 ASCAT PASS INDICATED THAT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE PROBABLY NO GREATER THAN 40 KT. BASED ON ALL OF THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN DECREASED TO 40 KT. ERICK IS TRAVERSING OVER A SHARP GRADIENT IN SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE...AND THE WATER TEMPERATURE CURRENTLY BENEATH THE CYCLONE IS LESS THAN 25C. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE TROPICAL STORM MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATERS...AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL INDICATES THAT ERICK WILL BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HOURS. FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE 0502 ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF ERICK IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED...HOWEVER THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED. ERICK IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE REMNANTS WILL BE STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. BASED ON THE NEW INITIAL POSITION...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH...BUT IS OTHERWISE JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 22.2N 110.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 23.2N 111.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 24.3N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 25.1N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/1200Z 25.6N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/1200Z 26.0N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2013-07-08 16:43:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 081443 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 2 20 28 39 41 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 35 59 48 43 43 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 64 21 24 17 16 NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 35KT 25KT 25KT 20KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 39 1(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) SAN JOSE CABO 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 4 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY
Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-08 16:43:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SHOULD REACH THE COAST SOON... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 8 the center of ERICK was located near 22.2, -110.0 with movement NW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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