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Valuevision Media Inc - 10-Q - Management's Discussion and Analysis...

2014-09-10 12:49:50| Jewelry - Topix.net

The following discussion and analysis of financial condition and results of operations is qualified by reference to and should be read in conjunction with our accompanying unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements and notes included herein and the audited consolidated financial statements and notes included in our annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended . Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-Looking Statements The following Management's Discussion and Analysis of Financial Condition and Results of Operations and other materials we file with the contain certain "forward-looking statements" within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

Tags: and media discussion analysis

Tropical Depression FIFTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2014-09-10 10:47:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100846 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT WED SEP 10 2014 Deep convection has increased in association with the area of low pressure located southwest of Acapulco, and the system is now designated a tropical depression. The convective pattern consists of a large area of tops colder than -80C west of the center and some curved bands forming to the north. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from a pair of ASCAT passes between 0300 and 0500 UTC. The SHIPS model shows moderate easterly to northeasterly shear over the cyclone, consistent with the location of the low-level center on the eastern edge of the convective canopy as shown by the ASCAT data. The shear should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, which should result in gradual strengthening as the cyclone is situated over very warm SSTs around 30C. By 48 hours, the shear is expected to decrease, allowing the cyclone to take better advantage of the favorable oceanic conditions and intensify more quickly. There is considerable spread in the intensity guidance. The SHIPS model is the most aggressive, showing the system reaching 90 kt by 72 hours. The HWRF shows quick strengthening in the short term, but then weakens the cyclone due to land interaction. The GFDL model also shows land interaction and a weaker solution. Given that the NHC track keeps the center offshore, the official intensity forecast will be above the intensity consensus but below the SHIPS model, showing the cyclone reaching 70 kt in 72 hours and peaking at 80 kt at days 4 and 5. The initial motion is a north-northwestward drift, as the depression is situated in a region of weak steering south of a mid-level ridge. The western part of the ridge will gradually erode over the next 48 to 72 hours, which should allow the deepening cyclone to begin moving slowly northwestward to north-northwestward. Later in the period, the cyclone should accelerate northwestward as the ridge strengthens to the east. While overall the guidance is in general agreement on this scenario, there are significant detail differences that will determine how close the system comes to the coast of southwestern Mexico in 72 to 96 hours. The ECMWF shows more interaction with an upper-low retrograding westward across Mexico and pulls the cyclone farther to the east and closer to the coast. On the other hand, the GFS has a track farther offshore showing less influence from the upper-level low and more interaction with the disturbance currently situated about 1,000 miles west-southwest of the depression. The NHC forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models through the period and is a little slower than and left of the TVCE consensus at days 4 and 5. Given the present weak steering currents and and spread of the model guidance, confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower than usual. A tropical storm watch may be needed for a portion of the coast of southwestern Mexico later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 14.4N 102.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 14.5N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 14.7N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 15.0N 102.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 15.4N 102.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 16.9N 103.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 14/0600Z 20.0N 106.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 15/0600Z 23.0N 109.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Post-Tropical Cyclone NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 24

2014-09-08 10:51:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080851 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 08 2014 There has been no organized deep convection within Norbert's circulation for more than 12 hours now, so the system is being declared a post-tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is lowered to 35 kt in basic agreement with a 0524 UTC ASCAT-B overpass that indicated wind vectors of around 32 kt in the southwestern quadrant. Since Norbert is expected to move over even cooler waters, it is presumed that a faster rate of decay should occur during the next couple of days, with dissipation forecast in 2-3 days. The official wind speed forecast shows slightly faster weakening than the previous one, with the expectation that the remnant low of Norbert will be very weak when it approaches the north-central Baja California peninsula. Norbert has been moving northwestward or 320/5 kt. The post- tropical cyclone should turn toward the north and northeast during the next couple of days ahead of a mid-tropospheric trough advancing eastward offshore of the California coast. In 2-3 days, the shallow remnant circulation should be pushed east-northeastward or eastward by the low-level flow toward the coast of the northern Baja California peninsula prior to dissipation. The official track forecast is essentially the same as the previous one and in best agreement with the multi-model consensus TVCE. Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture should continue to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Norbert. For future information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1 and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 27.4N 118.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/1800Z 27.7N 118.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 09/0600Z 28.5N 118.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1800Z 29.0N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0600Z 29.3N 116.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

Tags: number discussion forecast cyclone

Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 23

2014-09-08 04:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080233 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 Norbert has been producing little or no deep convection over the past several hours. Unless new thunderstorm activity develops in the circulation, Norbert will likely be downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone soon. Based on a slow spin down of the maximum winds analyzed from the ASCAT overpass from earlier today, the current intensity is set at 40 kt. Since the system has a substantial circulation, it should take a couple of days to dissipate. The official wind speed forecast is similar to the previous one, and anticipates that the system will be very weak by the time it nears the north-central Baja California peninsula. The cyclone's heading is gradually turning to the right, and the initial motion is now 320/6. A mid-level trough near California should cause Norbert, or the remnant low, to turn toward the north and northeast during the next couple of days. By 48-72 hours, the weak cyclone will likely move slowly east-northeastward within the low-level flow. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and essentially splits the difference between the latest GFS and ECMWF forecast tracks. Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture will continue to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life- threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 27.1N 117.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 27.7N 118.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 09/0000Z 28.5N 118.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/1200Z 29.0N 117.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 10/0000Z 29.2N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 11/0000Z 29.5N 115.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 22

2014-09-07 22:33:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 07 2014 A small patch of deep convection has been lingering just west of the center of Norbert during the last several hours. Although the cyclone is producing little deep convection, its circulation remains well established. An ASCAT pass around 1800 UTC showed maximum winds in the 40 to 45 kt range, and the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt based on that data and the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS. Norbert is currently over sea surface temperatures of around 25 C and is embedded in a stable air mass, as indicated by the large field of stratocumulus clouds to the west of the storm. These unfavorable conditions should cause Norbert to degenerate to a remnant low on Monday, and open into a trough in 3 to 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one, and follows the global model guidance. Norbert is gradually turning to the right, and the latest initial motion estimate is 300/7. A turn toward the north is expected during the next 24 hours as the cyclone becomes influenced by a deep-layer trough to the west of California. After that time, a turn to the northeast or east toward the Baja California peninsula is predicted when the remnant low becomes steered by the weak low-level flow. Little change was made to the previous track forecast, and this one is between the GFS and ECMWF models. Although Norbert is weakening, tropical moisture will continue to spread northward across northern Mexico and the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life- threatening flash flooding in these area during the next day or two. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 26.5N 117.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 27.2N 118.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 28.1N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 28.7N 118.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z 29.1N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 29.5N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

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