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Remnants of DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 8

2014-09-03 16:40:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTNT45 KNHC 031440 TCDAT5 REMNANTS OF DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 Although there is still some disorganized deep convection, primarily near the coast of northeastern Mexico, surface data and high-resolution visible satellite imagery indicate that there is no well-defined center of circulation. Therefore Dolly is declared dissipated and this is the last advisory. Although Dolly has dissipated as a tropical cyclone, its remnants should continue to produce heavy rains, with the threat of flooding and mud slides over portions of eastern Mexico through tomorrow. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 21.7N 99.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 4

2014-09-03 10:56:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030856 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 200 AM PDT WED SEP 03 2014 The convective cloud pattern of Norbert has improved significantly since the previous advisory. A pronounced CDO feature has developed with two distinct convective bands wrapping into the center. A 0432 UTC AMSU microwave indicated that a small mid-level eye feature could be trying to form. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were a consensus T3.0/45 kt at 0600 UTC, and UW-CIMSS ADT values have been steadily increasing and are now T3.7/59 kt. Based on these intensity estimates, the continued improvement in the cloud pattern, and the small radius of maximum winds, the advisory intensity is conservatively set at 50 kt. The initial motion estimate is still northwestward or 305/07 kt. Norbert is forecast to move in a general northwestward direction around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that stretches westward across northern Mexico and Baja California. This motion, accompanied by a slight decrease in forward speed, is expected to persist throughout the forecast period. The NHC model guidance has shifted slightly to the right again, but the size of the guidance envelope has decreased, showing much less spread on this cycle. The official forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track through 36 hours, and then is somewhat to right of the previous forecast after that. The combination of the small radius of maximum winds, 29.5C SSTs, a moist mid-level environment, and vertical shear decreasing to around 10 kt suggests that Norbert should at least intensity at the typical rate of 20-25 kt per day for the next 36 hours or so. However, if thew shear decrease more than currently expected, then rapid intensification during the next 24 hours is a very distinct possibility. By 96 hours and beyond, Norbert will be moving over SSTs less than 26.5C, which should induce slow weakening. NHC intensity forecast is above the previous forecast, and closely follows the SHIPS intensity model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.6N 107.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 20.0N 108.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 20.6N 109.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 21.4N 110.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 22.3N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 24.0N 112.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 25.1N 115.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 26.2N 117.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 7

2014-09-03 10:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030855 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 400 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014 Satellite imagery, surface observations, and data from the Mexican radar in Altamira indicate that Dolly has moved onshore between Tampico and Cabo Rojo. The initial intensity is decreased to a somewhat uncertain 35 kt, with these winds most likely occurring in convective bands over water to the northeast of the center. Dolly should continue to weaken as it moves farther inland, and the system is expected to dissipate in 24-36 hours over the mountains of central Mexico. The initial motion is 265/7. Dolly is forecast to continue moving generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until it dissipates. The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will continue during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 21.8N 98.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 03/1800Z 21.8N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0600Z 21.8N 100.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 3

2014-09-03 04:39:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030239 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 02 2014 Norbert has continued to slowly become better organized over the past few hours. Deep convection has increase near the center in a CDO-like feature, and a curved convective band extends into the western semicircle. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on a blend of the latest subjective and objective Dvorak estimates, and this could be a bit conservative. The SHIPS model shows some moderate northeasterly to easterly shear over the cyclone for the next 2 to 3 days, but otherwise conditions appear favorable for strengthening. There is a fair bit of spread in the intensity guidance, in part due to variability in the track forecast. The HWRF model now shows the cyclone moving over the Baja peninsula, and has trended a bit weaker. On the other hand, the SHIPS model now shows Norbert becoming a hurricane in 36 to 48 hours. The new NHC track takes Norbert over warmer SSTs closer to the Baja peninsula in 2 to 3 days and the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward, showing Norbert becoming a hurricane in 48 hours. This forecast is close to the SHIPS model and the FSU Superensemble. Gradual weakening is forecast at days 3 through 5 as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. Norbert has turned toward the left during the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate of 330/07. The dominant steering mechanism through the period will be a mid-level ridge centered over the southern United States, which should generally steer Norbert northwestward during the next 72 hours and then west-northwestward. Much of the track model guidance has shifted well to the right, or north, for this forecast cycle, especially at 48 hours and beyond. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean, HWRF, and GFDL are now north of the ECMWF, which was previously along the right side of the guidance envelope. This shift appears to be due to a deeper representation of Norbert and more erosion of the subtropical ridge to the north. The NHC track has been shifted to the right this cycle, and now lies south of the multi-model consensus aid TVCE. The NHC track is close to a blend of the GFS and ECMWF through 36 hours and is a little south of that model blend afterward. Given the large shift in the guidance and the large spread, confidence in the track forecast is lower than normal and additional adjustments may be needed in future forecast cycles. The rightward shift in the track increases the threat to the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. A tropical storm or hurricane warning could be needed for this area tonight or early Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.2N 106.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.8N 107.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 20.4N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 21.1N 109.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 21.9N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 23.5N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 24.5N 115.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 25.3N 117.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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Tropical Storm DOLLY Forecast Discussion Number 6

2014-09-03 04:36:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 000 WTNT45 KNHC 030236 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052014 1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014 Radar and surface data from Mexico show that the center of Dolly is moving ashore just south of Tampico. The initial intensity remains 40 kt, which is in agreement with the earlier aircraft observations. The minimum pressure is estimated to be 1002 mb based on dropsonde data from both the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and the NASA Global Hawk. Dolly should begin to weaken overnight while the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of northeastern Mexico within a day or so. The initial motion estimate is 270/9 kt. Dolly is forecast to continue moving generally westward to the south of a mid-level ridge until dissipation occurs. The new NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and is close to the GFS model. The primary threat from Dolly will come from heavy rainfall, with precipitation totals possibly approaching 15 inches in a few locations. These rains will likely cause flash flooding and mud slides in regions of mountainous terrain. This threat will continue during the next day or so. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 21.9N 97.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 22.0N 98.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0000Z 22.0N 100.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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