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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-09-12 04:51:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 120251 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Strong northeasterly shear continues to push nearly all of Odile's deep convection to the southwest of its center. The cyclone actually appears a little less organized than it did earlier today, and Dvorak final-T numbers have decreased from both TAFB and SAB. For now, however, the initial intensity is held at 50 kt based on an average of the CI numbers. The northeasterly shear over Odile is being caused by the flow on the west side of an upper-level low located over eastern Mexico. This feature is forecast to move westward, which should cause the shear over Odile to finally decrease in about 24 hours. Gradual strengthening is still forecast during that time, but lower shear should support a faster rate of intensification after 24 hours. The current shear has decreased the amount of time that Odile has for significant strengthening, and the intensity models have responded by showing much lower peak intensities in a few days. The updated NHC forecast has been adjusted downward for the entire forecast period and is near the SHIPS model solution, which is the highest of the reliable guidance. Odile has been meandering during the past few hours, and the estimated 12-hour average motion is 295/2 kt. The sheared nature of the cyclone could cause the center to continue meandering, but overall Odile should drift westward or northwestward during the next 24 hours. After that time, a strengthening mid-level ridge over Mexico is expected to cause the storm to accelerate northwestward through day 5. The track models have changed little on this scenario, and the new NHC track forecast is mainly an update of the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 15.5N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 15.5N 105.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 15.8N 105.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 16.4N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 17.5N 107.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 20.4N 111.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 23.0N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 24.5N 118.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-09-12 04:50:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120250 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 800 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Earlier microwave imagery indicated that the low-level center of the depression was located near the northern edge of the deep convection. The convection itself is not all that organized, and the cloud tops have recently been warming. The system remains a 30-kt depression based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The vertical shear affecting the cyclone is expected to increase out of the east during the next 12-24 hours, which should prevent strengthening during the next couple of days. The depression is likely to become absorbed by the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile, and the NHC forecast continues to show dissipation by day 3. The initial motion is northward, or 360/5 kt. Low clouds to the east of the depression are already being pulled eastward into Odile's circulation, and the depression is also likely to be pulled northeastward and eastward during the next 24 hours. The available track models are showing a faster eastward motion on this cycle, and the updated NHC forecast is adjusted eastward near the multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 16.6N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 16.8N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 16.7N 118.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 16.1N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 15.3N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 3
2014-09-12 04:32:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 120232 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 Tropical Depression Six has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Edouard, the fifth tropical storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season. The initial intensity of 35 kt is based on satellite estimates of T2.5 on the Dvorak scale from TAFB, SAB and UW CIMSS. The cloud pattern is now more symmetric with the low-level center embedded within the deep convection. The upper-level outflow is good in the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere. Although the atmospheric environment--including increasing wind shear--is not ideal for strengthening, Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalous warm waters in the north central Atlantic during the next few days. This will likely aid the intensification process, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane during that time. The NHC forecast is very close to the intensity consensus ICON. Edouard is moving toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 11 knots. The subtropical ridge currently steering the cyclone on that general track is forecast to weaken and shift eastward as a large mid-latitude trough approaches from the west. This new pattern should force Edouard to turn northward by the end of the forecast period, and eventually to recurve over the open Atlantic. There is confidence in the northward turn since that is the solution of most of the track guidance. The NHC forecast follows very close the multi-model consensus TVCA and an average of the GFS and the ECMWF models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 17.3N 39.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 18.1N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 19.0N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 20.3N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 21.5N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 24.0N 50.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 27.0N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 17/0000Z 30.0N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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A frank discussion in the White House
2014-09-12 00:00:23| Waste Management - Topix.net
By Jerry Fraser, Publisher, National Fisherman Consider this a shout-out to the Western Pacific Fishery Management Council members and others who traveled to the White House to make the case, if in vain, that the proposed expansion of the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument to 700,000 square miles is misguided policy. This map illustrates the vast expanse of ocean that would be off limits to fishermen with the proposed expansion of the Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument.
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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion Number 2
2014-09-11 22:41:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 112041 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 PM AST THU SEP 11 2014 Tropical Depression Six is slowly becoming better organized, with increasing convective banding in the northwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 35 kt and 30 kt respectively, and a recent CIRA AMSU estimate was 32 kt. The initial intensity remains 30 kt. The cirrus outflow is good in the northern semicircle and poor elsewhere. The initial motion is 310/13. A low-/mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3-4 days. After that, the track guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda. the guidance has come into somewhat better agreement that the northward turn should occur between 49W-55W, as the Canadian model has shifted westward since its previous run. The official forecast is an update of the previous package, and it lies near the center of the guidance envelope. The depression remains in an environment of light vertical wind shear. The large-scale models continue to forecast some increase in southerly shear after 24 hours, although less shear is forecast than seen for the previous advisory. The intensity guidance responds to this, and to increasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track, by showing more intensification than previously, especially after 48 hours. The new intensity forecast is nudged upward from 72-120 hours in best agreement with the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 17.0N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 17.9N 40.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 19.0N 42.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 20.1N 44.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 21.6N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 14/1800Z 24.5N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 15/1800Z 27.5N 52.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 16/1800Z 30.5N 53.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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