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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2014-09-11 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 112040 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 200 PM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Satellite imagery suggests that the depression has become somewhat less organized since this morning. Cloud top temperatures have generally warmed, and the depression's center is nearly exposed on the northern edge of the main convective mass. Low-cloud motions also indicate that depression's circulation remains rather elongated. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt in agreement with the 1800 UTC satellite classification from TAFB. The depression should struggle to survive during the next few days. Moderate northeasterly shear should persist over the cyclone in the short term, making any significant intensification unlikely. In about a day or so, the depression should become embedded in an environment of low- to mid-level westerly flow and easterlies aloft, which should induce a stronger easterly shear. The forecast shear could be enough to cause the cyclone to shear apart, and remnant low status is now indicated in 48 hours. The NHC wind speed forecast is slightly lower than the previous one and no longer shows the depression reaching tropical storm strength, in accordance with the latest multi-model consensus IVCN. Based on the latest fixes, the center of the depression was relocated a little farther west than in previous advisory. The depression is moving north-northwestward, or 335/07, around the northwestern side of a weak mid-level ridge. As the cyclone moves into a col region during the next 12 to 24 hours, the track should bend northward and northeastward while the forward speed decreases considerably. Global models then show the depression accelerating on a general eastward course toward the large and intensifying circulation of Odile. The same guidance shows the depression either being absorbed by Odile or succumbing to prohibitively high wind shear and losing its identity in 2-3 days. The track forecast is similar to but just a tad to the right of the previous one, close to the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/2100Z 16.3N 120.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0600Z 16.8N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 12/1800Z 17.0N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 13/0600Z 16.8N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 13/1800Z 16.0N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Depression SIXTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2014-09-11 17:34:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 830 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 111534 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162014 830 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 First-light visible satellite imagery and microwave data suggest that the small area of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California peninsula has become better organized. Satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB are a consensus T2.0/30 kt, and thus the system is being upgraded to Tropical Depression Sixteen-E at this time. The best guess on the initial motion is 340/11. The depression is forecast to continue north-northwestward or northward with a significant decrease in forward speed during the next 24 hours as it moves along the western periphery of a weak mid-level ridge. After that time, the cyclone should turn generally eastward with an increase in forward speed while it gradually becomes assimilated into the larger circulation of Tropical Storm Odile to the east. A motion south of east is even possible prior to dissipation. The NHC forecast track is on the left side of the guidance envelope but not too far from the multi-model consensus TVCN. While the depression could strengthen a little and become a tropical storm in the short term, opposing low- and upper-level flow should create a hostile shearing environment beyond 24 hours or so. Global models show the depression losing its identity in 2-3 days, but the official forecast will assume that the system remains a coherent feature through at least day 3. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly above the multi-model consensus out to 24 hours and near it beyond that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1530Z 16.1N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 16.7N 119.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 17.3N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 17.1N 117.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 16.3N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 14.5N 112.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain

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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 6

2014-09-11 16:40:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 111440 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Early morning GOES-E visible images and an 1148 UTC SSMIS microwave overpass indicate that the 15-20 kt of northeasterly shear continues to displace the surface circulation to the northeast of the convective canopy. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are unchanged, and so is the initial intensity of 45 kt. Statistical and dynamical guidance agrees with the shear persisting during the next 24 hours or so. After that time, the upper wind pattern becomes conducive for intensification through the remainder of the forecast period. The intensity forecast is basically an update from the previous forecast, but now reflects strengthening to a major hurricane at the 96 hour period, which is supported by the SHIPS intensity forecast. The initial motion estimate is 265/02, which is confirmed by the fortuitous microwave image. This westward drift is should continue during the next 24 hours, although the motion could be somewhat erratic, possibly a slight jog to the southwest as indicated by a number of the deterministic models. Afterwards, the cyclone should begin a northwestward motion in response to a mid-level ridge building over northern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. Odile will maintain a northwestward track and accelerate through day 5 which agrees with the TVCE multi-model consensus and the ECMWF/GFS (GFEX) blend. The official forecast is close to the previous advisory and sides with the aforementioned TVCE and GFEX consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 15.3N 104.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 15.4N 104.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 15.4N 104.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 15.7N 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 16.4N 105.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 19.0N 108.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 22.0N 112.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 24.5N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts

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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion Number 1

2014-09-11 16:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 111439 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014 Satellite imagery and a recent ASCAT-B overpass indicate that the low pressure area over the eastern Atlantic has a well-defined circulation and organized convective banding near the center. Thus, advisories are being initiated on Tropical Depression Six. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on the scatterometer data and the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 310/12. A low-/mid-level ridge north of the cyclone should steer it generally west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3-4 days. After that, the track guidance forecasts the system to turn generally northward between the ridge and a large mid-/upper-level low south of Bermuda. There is a fair amount of spread in the guidance on where this turn should occur, with the extremes being the Canadian model on the east near 45W and the ECMWF model on the west near 55W. The official forecast lies close to the model consensus in expecting a more northerly motion between 51W-53W. The forecast track keeps the cyclone well away from land for the next 5 days. The depression is currently in an environment of light vertical wind shear. The large-scale models forecast some increase in southerly shear after 24 hours, which should persist through the end of the forecast period. Despite the shear, the intensity guidance forecasts slow but steady strengthening. The official forecast follows this scenario and is a blend of the SHIPS model and the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 16.2N 37.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 17.1N 38.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 18.2N 40.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 19.3N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 20.5N 44.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 23.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 26.5N 51.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 16/1200Z 29.0N 53.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 5

2014-09-11 10:32:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 110832 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014 Odile has a classic shear pattern in infrared imagery, with the center located along a very sharp gradient in cloud top temperatures on the northeast side of the main convective cloud mass. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both T3.0/45 kt, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The SHIPS model and UW-CIMSS satellite analysis show moderate northeasterly shear affecting the cyclone, and this should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours. This shear will likely keep Odile from intensifying too quickly despite otherwise favorable conditions. After that time, the shear should lessen and steadier intensification is expected. The SHIPS model continues to have the most aggressive forecast, and shows Odile reaching major hurricane intensity in about 72 hours. The official forecast is similar to the previous one and is roughly between the SHIPS model and the IVCN consensus aid. The initial motion estimate is 270/02, as Odile appears to have been drifting westward over the past few hours. Steering currents will remain weak for the next 24 to 36 hours, and during this time much of the GFS-based guidance now shows Odile making a small cyclonic loop with some southward component of motion. The ECMWF shows little motion during the first 24 hours, and a northwestward motion starting by 36 hours. The NHC forecast during the first 36 hours is a blend of these solutions and shows a slow westward drift, although some erratic motion is possible during this time. After 36 hours, Odile will come under the influence of a building subtropical ridge to its northeast, which should result in an acceleration toward the northwest through the remainder of the forecast period. The guidance remains in good agreement on this scenario with the exception of the GFDL, which continues to be a right outlier. The new NHC track forecast is a little to the left of the previous one, in part due to the initial position and motion. The NHC forecast is close to the ECMWF solution after 48 hours and is a little to the left of the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0900Z 15.5N 104.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 11/1800Z 15.5N 104.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0600Z 15.5N 104.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 12/1800Z 15.5N 104.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 13/0600Z 16.1N 105.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 14/0600Z 18.5N 108.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 15/0600Z 21.5N 111.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 16/0600Z 24.5N 115.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

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