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Hurricane Hilary Graphics
2017-07-26 22:38:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jul 2017 20:38:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jul 2017 21:26:46 GMT
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Hurricane Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 22
2017-07-26 22:32:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 262032 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 2100 UTC WED JUL 26 2017 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 57 14(71) 1(72) 1(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) ISLA CLARION 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 115W 34 5 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 115W 34 2 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) 15N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 42(56) 21(77) X(77) X(77) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 21(36) X(36) X(36) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) 14(41) 2(43) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 1(13) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Summary for Hurricane Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-26 22:32:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... As of 3:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 the center of Hilary was located near 16.7, -113.2 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 972 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
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Hurricane Hilary Graphics
2017-07-26 16:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 26 Jul 2017 14:37:24 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 26 Jul 2017 15:35:28 GMT
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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 21
2017-07-26 16:36:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 261435 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 900 AM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Satellite images indicate that Hilary remains a powerful hurricane. The central dense overcast has become more symmetric, although convection is still preferentially forming in the eastern eyewall. Any eye feature, however, is somewhat less distinct than a few hours ago, and the latest microwave passes are again showing an open eyewall on the west side. Intensity estimates range from 82 to 99 kt, so the initial wind speed will stay at 90 kt. There are still hints of northerly shear in cirrus cloud motions from the 1-min GOES-16 data, although the cyclone's cloud canopy looks less distorted than yesterday. This shear is forecast to persist for the next day or two while the hurricane moves over warm waters. After that time, while the shear could decrease, Hilary will be traversing marginally warm waters, with some increase in drier, more stable air in the environment. Most of the guidance is in good agreement on little change in the short-term, with a gradual decrease in wind speed through 3 days. Beyond then, much colder waters should cause a more rapid weakening, along with some interaction with Irwin. The new NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous one and lies close to IVCN, the variable intensity model consensus. It should be noted that the ECMWF is on its own by intensifying Hilary to a major hurricane in 2 to 3 days. The initial motion is 280/11. The track forecast is essentially unchanged for the next 48 h, while Hilary is expected to be steered by the mid-level subtropical ridge to the north. After that time, the ridge is forecast to become weaker to due to a mid- to upper-level trough dropping over the Baja California peninsula. Models are not in good agreement on how much the ridge weakens due to this trough, leading to a wide disparity of solutions at long range. There has been little change in the guidance suite since 6z, so the official forecast is close to the previous one. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 16.4N 112.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 113.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 17.1N 115.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 17.5N 117.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 18.1N 118.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 29/1200Z 19.7N 121.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 30/1200Z 21.4N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 31/1200Z 23.0N 129.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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