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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 24
2019-09-18 10:45:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 180845 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...KIKO STOPS WEAKENING AS IT HEADS SOUTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.5N 125.9W ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 125.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), but it is expected to turn toward the west by Thursday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest by Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected to begin by tonight, and Kiko could become a hurricane again by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 24
2019-09-18 10:45:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 180845 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.9W AT 18/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.9W AT 18/0900Z AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 125.6W FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 125.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-18 04:51:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 02:51:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 18 Sep 2019 02:51:17 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 23
2019-09-18 04:50:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180250 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Kiko's convection has lacked some shape during the past few hours, with two main bursts observed near the center. Although subjective Dvorak Current Intensity numbers remain 3.5 (55 kt), ADT and SATCON estimates, as well as the afternoon ASCAT data, indicate that Kiko's winds are much weaker than that. The initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt as a compromise of all the available estimates, and even that could be generous. Kiko's future track looks like a roller coaster, with successive dips and rises in latitude resulting from cyclical strengthening and weakening of the mid-level ridge to the north. Although all of the models depict this general pattern, there is some model speed divergence after 36 hours. In the end, however, the updated NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, and it's close to the multi-model consensus aids and the HCCA model. Kiko has re-entered a zone of low shear, and it will soon be leaving an area of relatively low oceanic heat content. It may take a little time for the cyclone to feed off these better environmental conditions, but re-strengthening is anticipated to begin by 36 hours and continue for much of the forecast period. The new intensity forecast is just a little higher than the previous one, although it's not near the high end of the guidance envelope. Additional increases in the forecast peak intensity are possible in subsequent advisories if the higher-intensity models, including HCCA, don't come back down. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 16.7N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 16.2N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 16.5N 128.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 17.0N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.3W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2019-09-18 04:50:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 180250 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) 1(11) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 14(21) 19(40) 7(47) 4(51) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 2(13) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 11(15) 11(26) 2(28) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 29(36) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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