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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-18 04:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO A LITTLE WEAKER... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Kiko was located near 16.7, -125.5 with movement SW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 23
2019-09-18 04:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 180249 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...KIKO A LITTLE WEAKER... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.7N 125.5W ABOUT 1100 MI...1770 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 125.5 West. Kiko is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), but it is expected to turn toward the west-southwest and west by Thursday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Strengthening is anticipated to begin by late Wednesday, and Kiko could become a hurricane by late Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 23
2019-09-18 04:49:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 180249 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 125.5W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 125.5W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 125.2W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.2N 127.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N 128.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N 128.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 129.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 16.9N 131.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 15.9N 134.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 125.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-17 22:39:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 20:39:27 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 22
2019-09-17 22:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Convection has been struggling near the center of Kiko today, with only some re-development near the core of the cyclone during the past couple of hours. There's a pretty big disparity in the initial wind speed estimates this afternoon. Recent ASCAT data supports 40-45 kt, while other estimates are still near hurricane- force. Weighing the scatterometer data heavier than most gives an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. Kiko is on track toward the west-southwest, steered by a ridge extending from the central Pacific. The forecast continues to shift to the south with time, with a stronger ridge anticipated, and the model guidance is more consistent in showing two west- southwestward dips, one at the current time and one after day 5. The new NHC track prediction is somewhat south of the previous one, but this time it is fairly close to the model consensus, hopefully indicating that the southward shifts are done for the time being. While the current shear near Kiko should relax later today, it could take some time before the storm can recover from the effects of the shear. Kiko will probably to re-strengthen in a day or so, in part due to the cyclone moving over warmer waters in a low-shear environment. Afterward, there is very little agreement on the long-range upper-level wind forecast, leading to wildly divergent intensity forecasts by day 5 in the models, ranging from a tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane. For now since the track forecast brings Kiko again over warmer waters, a slight increase in wind speed is shown, and this could be conservative at the end of the 5-day period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.8N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 16.4N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 128.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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