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Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-07-07 04:57:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070257 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 THE PROXIMITY OF ERICK TO THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO APPEARS TO BE TAKING SOME TOLL ON THE CYCLONE. RECENT CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN AND INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE HAS DEGRADED SOME THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS REMAIN BETWEEN T4.0 AND T4.5...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 70 KT FOR NOW. ERICK HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY SINCE LAND INTERACTION AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKENING TREND TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER WATERS AND INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD HASTEN THE RATE OF WEAKENING...AND ERICK IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ICON. ERICK IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THAT TIME. AFTER 24 HOURS... THERE IS AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE WITH THE ECMWF...HWRF...AND UKMET MODELS SHOWING A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. FOR NOW THE NHC TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS AND IS CLOSE TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 18.7N 105.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 19.6N 106.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 20.8N 108.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 21.8N 109.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 22.9N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 24.8N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2013-07-07 04:55:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070254 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 2 8 29 50 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 4 12 28 46 38 NA TROPICAL STORM 51 68 68 58 24 12 NA HURRICANE 49 28 18 7 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 47 25 15 7 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 2 2 2 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 60KT 55KT 45KT 30KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 6( 8) 30(38) 9(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 5( 7) 24(31) 7(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CULIACAN 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN BLAS 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) P VALLARTA 34 7 3(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 9 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MANZANILLO 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 6 16(22) 1(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-07 04:54:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...CENTER OF ERICK STILL PARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of ERICK was located near 18.7, -105.7 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane ERICK Public Advisory Number 11
2013-07-07 04:54:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070254 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...CENTER OF ERICK STILL PARALLELING THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.7N 105.7W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO AND HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.7 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO... BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST IN THE WARNED AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER WESTERN GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA... JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 11
2013-07-07 04:52:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070252 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0300 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO AND HAS ALSO DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH EAST OF MANZANILLO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.7W AT 07/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 105.7W AT 07/0300Z AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 106.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 108.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.8N 109.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.9N 111.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.5N 115.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.8N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 105.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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