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Hurricane Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 24

2017-07-27 10:51:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270851 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 81 X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) 15N 115W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 1 7( 8) 62(70) 14(84) 1(85) X(85) X(85) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 23(24) 20(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 48(56) 3(59) X(59) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 2(22) X(22) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) 1(20) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Summary for Hurricane Hilary (EP4/EP092017)

2017-07-27 10:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...HILARY WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... As of 2:00 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 the center of Hilary was located near 17.3, -115.1 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 981 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

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Hurricane Hilary Public Advisory Number 24

2017-07-27 10:50:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270850 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2017 ...HILARY WEAKENS TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 115.1W ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 115.1 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 24

2017-07-27 10:50:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270850 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.1W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.1W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 114.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 17.7N 116.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.4N 118.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.1N 119.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.8N 121.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.0N 126.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 21.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 22.0N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 115.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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