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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 23
2017-07-27 04:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 270237 TCDEP4 Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Recent microwave images indicate that Hilary is vertically titled due to 15-20 kt of northwesterly shear. Although the low-level center of the hurricane is still located beneath very cold cloud tops, the overall cloud pattern appears more ragged than it was earlier today. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have held steady at 5.0/90 kt, but based on the degraded appearance and structure, the initial wind speed is lowered a little to 85 kt. This intensity estimate is between the above mentioned subjective Dvorak estimates and the ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The moderate shear currently affecting Hilary is expected to continue for about another day, which should cause some additional weakening. Even though the shear should lessen beyond 24 hours, Hilary will be moving over progressively cooler waters and it is forecast to cross the 26 degree C isotherm in about 2 days. These less favorable oceanic conditions and a progressively drier and more stable air mass should cause additional weakening, and Hilary is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than previous one, and it is close to the HFIP and IVCN consensus models. The hurricane is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt steered by a mid-level ridge to its northeast. The track forecast philosophy has not changed from the past few advisories. Although some interaction may take place with Irwin, currently located about 500 nmi to the west of Hilary, it is not expected to have much of an impact on the future path of Hilary. A general track to the west-northwest at a slightly slower pace is expected throughout the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one, and it is in best agreement with the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 17.1N 114.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 17.4N 115.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.9N 117.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 18.6N 118.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 19.3N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 20.7N 124.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 31/0000Z 21.8N 128.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 01/0000Z 22.9N 131.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Hilary (EP4/EP092017)
2017-07-27 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HILARY WEAKENS A LITTLE... As of 9:00 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 the center of Hilary was located near 17.1, -114.2 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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Hurricane Hilary Public Advisory Number 23
2017-07-27 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 270234 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092017 900 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017 ...HILARY WEAKENS A LITTLE... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 114.2W ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 114.2 West. Hilary is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2017-07-27 04:34:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 270234 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 74 1(75) X(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) ISLA CLARION 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 115W 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 115W 34 3 4( 7) 3(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 20N 120W 34 X 5( 5) 29(34) 41(75) 7(82) X(82) X(82) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 8(41) X(41) X(41) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 12(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 34(37) 10(47) 1(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 2(12) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 23
2017-07-27 04:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 270234 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0300 UTC THU JUL 27 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.2W AT 27/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.2W AT 27/0300Z AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.7W FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.4N 115.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 17.9N 117.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.6N 118.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.3N 120.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.7N 124.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.8N 128.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 22.9N 131.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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