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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 21
2019-09-17 16:37:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 171437 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Kiko continues to have an irregular shape on satellite imagery, with most of the convection near the center and in the southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. Still, overnight microwave data indicate that the hurricane still has a central core, and the latest satellite estimates support Kiko remaining a 65-kt cyclone on this advisory. Kiko has turned toward the west-southwest this morning due to increased ridging extending from the central Pacific. The synoptic pattern is rather changeable near the tropical cyclone, with a sinuous track anticipated during the next several days due to fluctuations in strength of the subtropical ridge. The forecast has been shifted southward at most times, since the GFS-based guidance has trended toward the ECMWF/UKMET solutions. However, the NHC track is on the northern side of the guidance envelope. The shear that has been affecting Kiko is forecast to relent later today, which should put an end to the weakening trend. By late Wednesday, the cyclone could begin to re-strengthen due to the relaxation of the shear while the storm is over warmer waters. At long range, shear is forecast to increase in about 4 days, causing weakening around that time, although there's little agreement on whether that shear will last. The model guidance is higher at most forecast times than the last cycle, which makes some sense given the southerly adjustment to the track forecast. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly upward, but is below the corrected consensus guidance at most times. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 17.0N 125.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 16.3N 127.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 16.5N 128.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1200Z 17.3N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 22/1200Z 16.5N 133.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-17 16:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH AND LATITUDE... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -125.0 with movement WSW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 21
2019-09-17 16:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 171436 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH AND LATITUDE... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 125.0W ABOUT 1060 MI...1705 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 125.0 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the west on Wednesday, and a west-northwestward motion Thursday into Friday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is possible today, followed by some increase in strength on Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2019-09-17 16:36:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 171436 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) 15N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 21(30) 20(50) 4(54) 2(56) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 1(15) X(15) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 13(19) 9(28) 2(30) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 9(14) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 21
2019-09-17 16:36:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 171436 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 17/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 125.0W AT 17/1500Z AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 124.8W FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.4N 126.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.3N 127.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 128.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.2N 130.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 16.5N 133.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 125.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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