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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 20
2019-09-17 11:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 170940 CCA TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CORRECTED 12 FT SEAS. THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Kiko Graphics
2019-09-17 10:53:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 08:53:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 08:53:26 GMT
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 20
2019-09-17 10:52:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170852 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 The northeasterly shear impacting Kiko has still not let up. Satellite imagery shows an irregular shaped central dense overcast with the anvils being forced downshear. A blend of the latest subjective and objective intensity estimates suggest the initial intensity has decreased to 70 kt, and this value may be a little generous based on a recent scatterometer pass. Kiko is moving slowly westward. All of the track guidance indicate that a turn to the west-southwest should be commencing very soon as the cyclone becomes steered by a mid-level ridge to its northwest. This steering pattern should remain in place for the next couple of days, before the ridge weakens and Kiko becomes steered to the west to west-northwest by a ridge to its northeast. Late in the forecast period, a new ridge should develop to the northwest of Kiko, causing another turn to the west-southwest. All the while, the steering currents will be fairly weak, resulting in a slow forward motion for the next several days. The official NHC forecast was adjusted only slightly to the south through 72 hours due to a shift in the consensus aids. The shear is expected to weaken Kiko to a tropical storm later today. By tonight, this shear is expected to diminish, which could allow for some re-strengthening. However, moderately stable air surrounding the system, subsidence from the ridge to the northwest, and marginal sea surface temperatures should keep the strengthening at a minimum before the shear returns in a couple of days. This re-strengthening is forecast by most of the guidance, and although the NHC forecast makes Kiko a hurricane again, the forecast intensity is a little lower than some of the most reliable consensus aids during that time period. Once the shear returns, Kiko is expected to begin weakening once again and should become a tropical storm by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.2N 124.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-17 10:51:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO CRAWLING WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS... As of 2:00 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -124.7 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 20
2019-09-17 10:51:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 170851 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...KIKO CRAWLING WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 124.7W ABOUT 1035 MI...1670 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 124.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn to the west-southwest is expected today, followed by a turn to the west to west-northwest by Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected through this evening and Kiko is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. Some slight re-strengthening is possible Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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