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Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2019-09-17 10:51:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 170851 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 4(10) 2(12) 3(15) X(15) 1(16) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 17(33) 3(36) 2(38) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 10(28) 2(30) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 20
2019-09-17 10:51:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 170850 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.7W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Kiko Graphics
2019-09-17 04:45:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 02:45:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 03:31:55 GMT
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-17 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170234 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Kiko continues to gradually lose strength. Satellite images show a less organized central dense overcast feature with no evidence of an eye. There is a sharp edge in the convective pattern on the north side of the system, suggestive of continued northerly wind shear. The initial wind speed is lowered to 75 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Kiko remains a very compact system with its tropical-storm-force winds and rain bands extending only about 50 n mi from the center. Additional weakening seems likely during the next 24 hours due to the continued effects of northerly shear, dry air, and marginally warm SSTs, and the NHC forecast shows Kiko falling below hurricane intensity during that time. The models show Kiko re-strengthening a little or maintaining its intensity on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a region of lower shear. However, weakening should resume by the end of the week when the cyclone moves into a less favorable atmospheric environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Kiko continues to only crawl westward in relatively weak steering currents. A ridge building to the northwest of Kiko over the central Pacific is forecast to steer the cyclone west-southwestward on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken allowing Kiko to turn westward or west-northwestward later this week, followed by another turn to the southwest by the end of the forecast period. Regardless of the details of the track forecast, the bottom line is that Kiko is expected to continue its slow trek for several more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 17.2N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-17 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -124.4 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
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