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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

2019-09-15 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -121.1 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 950 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

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Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 13

2019-09-15 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 151453 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...KIKO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 121.1W ABOUT 835 MI...1340 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 121.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a slow westward track is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 3 days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13

2019-09-15 16:53:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 151453 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 8(10) 11(21) 12(33) 4(37) X(37) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 11(18) 11(29) 3(32) X(32) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 12(17) 5(22) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 16(21) 10(31) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 13

2019-09-15 16:52:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 151452 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 121.1W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 121.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Kiko Graphics

2019-09-15 10:56:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 08:56:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 08:56:07 GMT

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