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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2019-09-14 10:39:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 416 FOPZ13 KNHC 140839 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 2 5( 7) 5(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) 20N 120W 34 3 15(18) 16(34) 5(39) 3(42) X(42) X(42) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 40(52) 7(59) 1(60) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 5(22) X(22) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) $$ FORECASTER BERG

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

2019-09-14 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Kiko was located near 17.3, -117.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kiko Public Advisory Number 8

2019-09-14 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 140839 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kiko Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...KIKO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 117.1W ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kiko was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 117.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward or west-northwestward course at a slightly slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days. Kiko is expected to become a hurricane by tonight and maintain hurricane intensity into Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Berg

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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 8

2019-09-14 10:39:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140839 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.1W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 45SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 117.1W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 116.7W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 117.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

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