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Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 14

2019-09-15 22:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 152031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 121.9W ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 121.9 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a slow westward track is forecast during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 3 days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14

2019-09-15 22:31:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 152031 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 3( 4) 10(14) 13(27) 9(36) 3(39) 1(40) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 X 3( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 6(25) 2(27) 1(28) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 16(25) 7(32) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 13(20) 7(27) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 14

2019-09-15 22:31:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 152031 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 100SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 121.9W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 121.5W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 121.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 13

2019-09-15 16:54:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151454 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has become a very powerful hurricane overnight, with a warm eye and strong eyewall convection. The cloud pattern is also fairly symmetric, except favoring the western semicircle slightly due to some easterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 115 kt, which matches the latest ADT and TAFB estimates. The hurricane should be near its peak intensity today while it in is a low-shear, marginal warm-water environment. While those conditions don't change that much during the next few days, Kiko is forecast to be moving fairly slowly over that time, which will likely stir up some cooler waters and help weaken the convection. A steadier weakening is expected at long-range due to an increase in shear. The new forecast is somewhat lower than the last one, but higher than the model consensus. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that Kiko could transition into an annular hurricane, which tend to maintain their intensities higher than average, so I'm hesitant to reduce the forecast too much for now. Kiko is moving westward at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone is forecast to remain in place for about the next two days, keeping the hurricane on a slow westward track. A weakness or even a break in the ridge is then forecast by all of the models due to a mid-latitude trough, with perhaps a restrengthening of the ridge at long range. There's been a subtle model trend toward supporting the ridge remaining weak but intact, which would favor Kiko moving very slowly westward instead of any significant rightward turn. The latest NHC prediction places a greater weight on the UKMET and ECMWF models and their ensembles, which generally favor the weak ridge scenario. No significant changes were made to the previous forecast track, but the long-range track confidence is low due to the large model spread at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 17.0N 121.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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