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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-15 02:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HURRICANE KIKO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... As of 5:30 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Kiko was located near 17.0, -119.7 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
Hurricane Kiko Update Statement
2019-09-15 02:37:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 530 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ63 KNHC 150036 CCA TCUEP3 Hurricane Kiko Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 530 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Corrected location coordinates ...HURRICANE KIKO NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH... Recent satellite-based intensity estimates indicate that Hurricane Kiko has rapidly strengthened since the last advisory. The maximum sustained winds have increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The higher intensity will be reflected in the next forecast advisory, which will be issued before 800 PM PDT. SUMMARY OF 530 PM AST...0030 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 119.7W ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Kiko Graphics
2019-09-14 22:37:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 20:37:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 20:37:55 GMT
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 10
2019-09-14 22:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 142036 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Kiko has continued to quickly strengthen today, with an eye becoming apparent in geostationary and microwave satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are T4.5 (77 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMSS ADT and SATCON are around 75 kt. On this basis, the initial wind speed as been raised to 75 kt for this advisory, and Kiko becomes the sixth hurricane in the eastern Pacific basin this season. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so while Kiko remains over warm water and within low vertical wind shear conditions. After that time, slightly cooler waters and a little increase in shear are likely to cause gradual weakening. A faster rate of filling is expected after 72 hours when Kiko is forecast to encounter stronger westerly shear. The new NHC intensity forecast is near the upper end of the guidance, once again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. Recent microwave fixes show that the center of Kiko is a little south of the previous estimates, which results in a more westward initial motion estimate of 270/10 kt. Kiko is currently being steered westward by a mid-level ridge that extends westward over the eastern Pacific from northern Mexico. The western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days which should cause Kiko to slow down and gain some latitude. There continues to be usually large spread in the track guidance, with the spread over 400 n mi by day 5. The latest trend in the guidance is slower and farther southward after 48 hours, so the NHC track has been adjusted in the direction. The new track forecast is not as slow as the lastest consensus models, so additional adjustment may be required in future advisories. In summary, the confidence in the track forecast remains quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 17.1N 119.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
2019-09-14 22:37:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 142036 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 119.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 5( 9) 6(15) 2(17) 1(18) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 13(18) 27(45) 3(48) X(48) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) X(12) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) 3(15) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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