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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 12
2019-09-15 10:55:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150855 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has continued to strengthen overnight and is now characterized by a cold ring of convection with cloud top temperatures below -70 degrees Celsius surrounding a clearing, well-defined eye. Both subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have increased, and a blend of these estimates indicate an initial intensity of 110 kt. The improved appearance and structure of Kiko over the past several hours suggests that some additional strengthening is possible today, and the official forecast makes Kiko a category 4 hurricane by this afternoon. The intensity forecast beyond that time becomes challenging. Dynamical and statistical guidance unanimously weaken Kiko over the next few days. However, other than a slight increase in northeasterly shear indicated in SHIPS guidance, there are no other environmental indicators that stand out as a good reason for Kiko to weaken as quickly as shown by that guidance. It is also interesting to note that there is significant model spread in the forecast position of Kiko by 72 hours. Some of the guidance places Kiko over cool SSTs by day 3, while some solutions keep Kiko over warmer water. The official foreast, which is similar to the previous one, does indicate some weakening through 72 hours, but at a slower rate than the majority of the guidance since the latest forecast has trended southward over warm water. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear from an upper-level trough to the northwest of Kiko should cause steady weakening after that time. Kiko is moving just south of due west, or 265/7 kt. A mid level ridge to the north of the hurricane should keep it generally on a west or west-northwestward track for the next couple of days. As mentioned previously, the models diverge by 72 hours as they differ in how they handle a mid to upper-level trough approaching California from the west. The northernmost solutions produce a break in the ridge with a sharper trough. The southern solutions keep the ridge in tact. Based on the continuation of a slight southward trend in the guidance, and the southward bias in the actual track of the cyclone recently, I am placing a little more weight on the southern solutions. However, given the large spread beyond 72 hours, the track confidence during that time is low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 16.9N 120.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 16.9N 121.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 17.6N 124.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 18.1N 128.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2019-09-15 10:55:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150855 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 10(18) 11(29) 4(33) 1(34) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 13(21) 15(36) 4(40) 1(41) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 6(19) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 15(21) 14(35) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-15 10:54:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 16.9, -120.7 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 12
2019-09-15 10:54:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150854 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 ...KIKO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AS IT HEADS WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 120.7W ABOUT 815 MI...1310 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 120.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west to west-northwest motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast, and Kiko could become a category 4 hurricane later today. Gradual weakening is then expected to begin tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 12
2019-09-15 10:53:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150853 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.7W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 120.4W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.9N 121.8W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.2N 122.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.5N 124.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.6N 124.9W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.8N 126.6W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 18.1N 128.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 18.5N 131.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 120.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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