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Tropical Storm Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-09-14 16:55:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 141454 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 120W 34 3 14(17) 7(24) 3(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 120W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) 20N 125W 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 23(29) 36(65) 4(69) 1(70) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) X(29) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) 6(17) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-14 16:54:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Kiko was located near 17.4, -118.3 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 9
2019-09-14 16:53:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 141453 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 118.3W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 118.3W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 117.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 118.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-14 10:41:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 08:41:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 09:31:24 GMT
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kiko
Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-14 10:39:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 434 WTPZ43 KNHC 140839 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 A 0205 UTC WindSat pass showed that Kiko's low-level structure has become significantly better defined. The storm has also been producing a persistent cluster of deep convection, although microwave fixes suggest that the surface center is located beneath the eastern side of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates range from 45-55 kt, but scatterometer data from a few hours ago indicated that maximum winds were between 40-45 kt. Kiko's initial intensity is therefore held at 45 kt, but the cyclone's improved structure likely means that its winds will increase again soon. There's still a swath of dry air to the north and west of the storm, but now that the inner core has become more established, Kiko should be able to take advantage of low shear and sufficiently warm waters to strengthen during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE) during the first 36 hours, showing a little more strengthening than the previous forecast, and making Kiko a hurricane in 24 hours. While the new forecast is also a little higher at 48 hours, it's still below the HCCA, FSSE, and HWRF solutions, so additional adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories. Weakening should commence by day 3 due to little to no oceanic heat content and gradually increasing westerly shear. Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. Mid-level ridging to the north should drive the cyclone on a westward to west-northwestward heading for the entire forecast period. The most significant gain in latitude should occur from Sunday through Tuesday when Kiko is at its strongest and responds to a break in the ridge between 120W and 130W. While the GFS and ECMWF models still prefer northern and southern solutions within the guidance envelope, respectively, the distance between the two at day 5 has been cut in half in the latest model runs, suggesting that the track uncertainty is not as high as it was previously. The NHC track forecast remains close to the various multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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