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Hurricane Kiko Graphics
2019-09-15 04:18:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 02:18:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Sep 2019 02:18:29 GMT
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Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 11
2019-09-15 04:17:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 150216 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...KIKO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.0N 120.1W ABOUT 775 MI...1250 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 120.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. A slightly slower motion toward the west-northwest is forecast by Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Gradual weakening is expected to begin by Monday, but Kiko is expected to be at or near major hurricane strength for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 11
2019-09-15 04:17:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150216 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Kiko has undergone a remarkable intensification over the past 24 hours. The initial intensity for this advisory is 100 kt, 55 kt higher than last night's estimate at the same time. The hurricane briefly developed a very clear eye earlier today, and although the eye has become slightly obscured by an increase in eyewall convection, it still has a very impressive satellite appearance. The 100 kt intensity is based on a blend of recent subjective and objective estimates that range from 90 to 105 kt. There is no obvious reason why Kiko would stop strengthening in the short term. The hurricane is clearly not being affected by any of the dry air to its east, SSTs beneath the cyclone are warm, and the shear is quite low. This should be the case for the next 36 h or so, and Kiko is expected to at least maintain its current strength through that period. Beyond that time, the intensity forecast is quite complicated. Kiko will be moving nearly parallel to a strong SST gradient. If the hurricane moves farther south than forecast, it could maintain its strength for longer than indicated. But if it moves farther north, it will likely weaken quickly. Kiko is also forecast to slow down, and upwelling of colder water could also become a factor in a few days, even if the hurricane stays on the warm side of the SST gradient. The NHC forecast continues to show gradual weakening beyond 36 h, but is on the high side of the intensity guidance, most of which is tied to a forecast track north of the latest NHC forecast. The hurricane has slowed a little but is still moving west with a motion of 270/8 kt. For the next couple of days a mid-level ridge should keep Kiko moving generally westward at a similar forward speed. Beyond that time, there is significant divergence between the models. The GFS and regional hurricane models all show the ridge weakening, allowing Kiko to turn northwestward. The ECMWF and UKMET (as well as a clear majority of their ensembles) show no such weakness forming and keep Kiko moving steadily westward through mid-week. Unfortunately, no one solution appears superior at this point, so the NHC forecast isn't fully following either group of models. Instead it has been adjusted only modestly southward, and remains close to the multi-model consensus. Needless to say, confidence in the forecast is quite low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.0N 120.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2019-09-15 04:17:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 150216 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 11(25) 4(29) 1(30) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) 20N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 16(23) 22(45) 5(50) 1(51) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) 20N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 5(14) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 10(28) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 11
2019-09-15 04:16:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 150216 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.1W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 119.7W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.0N 121.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.2N 122.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 123.6W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.8N 124.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.2N 126.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 128.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 18.5N 130.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 120.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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