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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-14 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 the center of Kiko was located near 17.1, -119.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.
Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 10
2019-09-14 22:36:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 142036 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 ...KIKO QUICKLY STRENGTHENS INTO A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.1N 119.3W ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 119.3 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A westward or west- northwestward course at a slower forward speed is expected during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the day or so, followed by little change in strength Sunday night and Monday. Weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 10
2019-09-14 22:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142035 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.0W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.2N 120.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.4N 122.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.7N 123.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.0N 123.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 18.7N 126.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 19.3N 128.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 130.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 119.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Kiko Graphics
2019-09-14 16:56:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 14:56:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2019 14:56:28 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-14 16:55:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141455 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019 Kiko's cloud pattern has continued to quickly organize overnight and this morning. A couple of high-resolution microwave overpass from several hours ago revealed significant banding around the center, and that a banded eye had formed. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC were 55 kt, and the UW/CIMSS ADT is now up to about 60 kt. Based on the continued increase in organization, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt. Kiko is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low wind shear environment during the next day or so. This should allow for additional intensification, and Kiko is expected to become a hurricane later today. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. By 72 hours, Kiko will be moving into an area of increasing westerly shear and over slightly cooler waters. As a result, steady weakening is anticipated later in forecast period. The tropical storm is moving westward (280/9 kt) to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. The track models still exhibit an usually large spread after 48 hours, especially for a system in the eastern Pacific basin. This appears to be the result of the forecast vertical depth of Kiko and how the cyclone responds to a developing weakness in the ridge. The GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a more northerly track, with a stronger Kiko heading toward the break in the ridge. Meanwhile, the ECMWF and UKMET take a weaker Kiko on a more westerly heading. Since the NHC forecast shows Kiko a stronger and vertically deep system during the next couple of days, the track forecast lies a little north of the consensus models. After that time, Kiko is likely to weaken and the official forecast shows a turn back toward the west, as Kiko comes under the influence of the low-level easterly flow. As a result of the large model spread, the confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 17.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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