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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 16
2019-09-16 10:38:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160838 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.1W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 123.1W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 122.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 130.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.3N 131.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 123.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Hurricane Kiko Graphics
2019-09-16 04:33:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 02:33:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 03:31:26 GMT
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-09-16 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160232 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has lost some organization this evening. The eye of the hurricane has been filling, and the convective pattern is not as symmetric as it was earlier today. The initial intensity is lowered only slightly to 110 kt, following a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates, but this could be a little generous. Recent ASCAT data indicate that although Kiko is a powerful hurricane, its wind field is quite compact. Based on that data, Kiko's tropical-storm-force winds extend no more than 50 n mi from the center, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend up to 20 n mi from the center. The hurricane is moving westward at about 7 kt, steered by a narrow subtropical ridge to its north. This motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for about 24 hours. The models all depict Kiko bending to the west-southwest late Monday and Tuesday in response to a ridge building to its northwest. After that time, the model solutions diverge considerably with some taking Kiko to the northwest and others more westward or southwestward. The NHC official track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope, and the bottom line is that Kiko will likely be moving slowly over the eastern Pacific waters during the next several days. The intensity models all show Kiko gradually weakening through the forecast period. Some of this weakening is likely to be a result of upwelling due to its expected slow motion and perhaps intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and generally follows the guidance of the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 122.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2019-09-16 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160232 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 15N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 14(19) 13(32) 7(39) 3(42) X(42) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 5(18) 2(20) X(20) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 12(15) 14(29) 5(34) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 12(20) 8(28) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-16 04:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COMPACT BUT POWERFUL KIKO MOVING SLOWLY OVER OPEN WATERS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -122.6 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 954 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.
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