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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics
2013-07-08 11:13:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 08:37:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 08 Jul 2013 09:06:30 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-08 10:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS MORNING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 8 the center of ERICK was located near 21.3, -109.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 16
2013-07-08 10:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080835 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT MON JUL 08 2013 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA LATER THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.3N 109.5W ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATER THIS MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR LATER THIS MORNING. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2013-07-08 10:36:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080835 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 1 13 29 29 42 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 13 54 47 45 43 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 85 33 24 25 15 NA NA HURRICANE X 1 1 1 X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X 1 1 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40KT 30KT 25KT 25KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) SAN JOSE CABO 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 16
2013-07-08 10:35:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080835 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0900 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 109.5W AT 08/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 109.5W AT 08/0900Z AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 109.1W FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.1N 110.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N 112.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.2N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.5N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 109.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
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