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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15

2013-07-08 04:49:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 080248 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 8 29 29 42 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 5 42 47 45 43 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 93 49 24 25 15 NA NA HURRICANE 2 1 1 1 X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 1 1 1 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 35KT 25KT 25KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 4 7(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SAN JOSE CABO 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LA PAZ 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)

2013-07-08 04:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...ERICK TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING... As of 8:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 the center of ERICK was located near 20.8, -108.7 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 15

2013-07-08 04:48:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 080248 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 ...ERICK TO PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.8N 108.7W ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD PASS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER WESTERN JALISCO...NAYARIT...SOUTHERN SINALOA... AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 PM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 15

2013-07-08 04:46:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 080246 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0300 UTC MON JUL 08 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 108.7W AT 08/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 100SE 60SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 108.7W AT 08/0300Z AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 111.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.3N 113.3W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.2N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 108.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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