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Summary for Tropical Storm ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-08 01:47:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... As of 5:00 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 the center of ERICK was located near 20.4, -108.4 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm ERICK Public Advisory Number 14A
2013-07-08 01:47:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 072346 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 500 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 ...ERICK MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 108.4W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A WEST- NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERICK SHOULD PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER JALISCO...NAYARIT...SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO... AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm ERICK Graphics
2013-07-07 23:08:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 20:41:00 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 21:04:43 GMT
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erick
Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-07-07 22:42:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 072042 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION OF ERICK REMAINS VIGOROUS...THE CYCLONE HAS LOST MOST OF ITS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. RECENTLY...HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 50 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE VARIOUS SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ONE... SHOWING A STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH DUE TO COOLING WATERS AND ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR. ERICK SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO 48 HOURS WHEN IT MOVES OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS. THE CYCLONE HAS TURNED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TODAY...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/9. A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE MODELS ON THIS ADVISORY CYCLE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND BY BEING JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 36 HOURS. AS ERICK BECOMES A SHALLOW REMNANT LOW...IT SHOULD TAKE A MORE WESTWARD TURN AND SLOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK EASTERN PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 20.3N 108.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 21.0N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 22.0N 111.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 22.9N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 23.9N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 25.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2013-07-07 22:41:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 072040 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 2100 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 4 12 20 43 NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 5 29 40 45 42 NA NA TROPICAL STORM 93 64 46 33 15 NA NA HURRICANE 2 3 2 2 X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 2 3 2 2 X NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 45KT 40KT 35KT 30KT 20KT NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 1 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) SAN JOSE CABO 34 1 8( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) LA PAZ 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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