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Tropical Storm ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-07-07 16:39:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 071439 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 6 18 38 46 NA TROP DEPRESSION 1 13 25 39 42 41 NA TROPICAL STORM 86 76 61 40 20 13 NA HURRICANE 12 10 8 4 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 12 9 8 4 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 X 1 X X X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 55KT 50KT 45KT 35KT 25KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 29(31) 10(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 20(22) 8(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LA PAZ 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MAZATLAN 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN BLAS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P VALLARTA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 13
2013-07-07 16:39:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 071438 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1500 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 107.3W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 100SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 107.3W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 108.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.9N 110.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.0N 111.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.0N 113.8W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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Hurricane ERICK Graphics
2013-07-07 13:54:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 11:54:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 09:04:30 GMT
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Summary for Hurricane ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-07 13:53:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK MOVING A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 5:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 the center of ERICK was located near 19.6, -106.9 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane ERICK Public Advisory Number 12A
2013-07-07 13:53:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 071152 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 500 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 ...ERICK MOVING A LITTLE FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 106.9W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM PDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERICK SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO TODAY...AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER JALISCO...NAYARIT...SINALOA...WESTERN DURANGO...AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART
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