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Hurricane ERICK Forecast Advisory Number 12

2013-07-07 10:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 070833 TCMEP5 HURRICANE ERICK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO EAST OF MANZANILLO...AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.5W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 106.5W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 106.2W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.3N 110.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.3N 112.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.8N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 106.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane ERICK Graphics

2013-07-07 07:37:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 05:37:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 03:04:22 GMT

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Summary for Hurricane ERICK (EP5/EP052013)

2013-07-07 07:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CENTER OF ERICK CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 11:00 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 the center of ERICK was located near 18.9, -106.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

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Hurricane ERICK Public Advisory Number 11A

2013-07-07 07:36:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070536 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERICK INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 1100 PM PDT SAT JUL 06 2013 ...CENTER OF ERICK CONTINUES TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 106.1W ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO CABO CORRIENTES * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.1 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER NEAR OR OVER THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE SUNDAY AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER WESTERN GUERRERO...MICHOACAN...COLIMA... JALISCO...AND SOUTHERN NAYARIT MEXICO...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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