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Hurricane ERICK Graphics
2013-07-07 11:11:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 08:41:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 07 Jul 2013 09:04:30 GMT
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Hurricane ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-07-07 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 070835 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF ERICK HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A SMALL CDO ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 70 KT...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...ERICK WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS SO STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE AND THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. BY 72 H...ERICK WILL BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 20 DEG C...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE REDUCED TO A REMNANT LOW AROUND THAT TIME. BLENDING OF VARIOUS CENTER FIXES YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 310/9. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PROGNOSTIC TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD INDUCE A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. THIS IS ALSO QUITE SIMILAR TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT NORTH OF THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF PREDICTIONS. BASED ON THE CURRENT LOCATION OF ERICK AND THE FORECAST...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED EAST OF MANZANILLO. ALSO...SINCE IT IS NOW UNLIKELY THAT THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES IS ALSO DISCONTINUED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 19.2N 106.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 20.1N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.2N 109.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 22.3N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 23.3N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 24.8N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0600Z 25.0N 119.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Hurricane ERICK Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-07-07 10:35:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 070835 PWSEP5 HURRICANE ERICK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 2 7 28 50 NA TROP DEPRESSION X 5 13 29 46 38 NA TROPICAL STORM 49 68 68 58 25 12 NA HURRICANE 51 27 18 7 1 X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 48 25 15 6 1 X NA HUR CAT 2 2 2 3 1 X X NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 60KT 55KT 45KT 30KT 20KT NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CABO SAN LUCAS 34 2 16(18) 30(48) 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) CABO SAN LUCAS 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAN JOSE CABO 34 2 12(14) 25(39) 2(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SAN JOSE CABO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) LA PAZ 34 1 4( 5) 12(17) 5(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CULIACAN 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MAZATLAN 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) P VALLARTA 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLA SOCORRO 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 7 5(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Hurricane ERICK (EP5/EP052013)
2013-07-07 10:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...ERICK CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sun Jul 7 the center of ERICK was located near 19.2, -106.5 with movement NW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 984 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.
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Hurricane ERICK Public Advisory Number 12
2013-07-07 10:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 070834 TCPEP5 BULLETIN HURRICANE ERICK ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 07 2013 ...ERICK CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 106.5W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MAINLAND MEXICO EAST OF MANZANILLO...AND DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES * BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM SANTA FE TO LA PAZ FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ERICK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.5 WEST. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF ERICK SHOULD MOVE PARALLEL TO...BUT REMAIN OFFSHORE OF...THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING THE CENTER VERY CLOSE TO THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ERICK IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LATER TODAY. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB...29.06 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA ALONG THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR BY EARLY MONDAY. RAINFALL...ERICK IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MICHOACAN...COLIMA...JALISCO...NAYARIT...AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ERICK ARE AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST MEXICO. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...500 AM PDT. NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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