je.st
news
Tag: kiko
Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 19
2019-09-17 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 170233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 ...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 124.4W ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 124.4 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is forecast to occur on Tuesday and early Wednesday, followed by a turn back to the west or west-northwest later in the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected through Tuesday, and Kiko is expected to become a tropical storm during that time. Little change in strength is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
public
advisory
hurricane
Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2019-09-17 04:34:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 170233 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 3(17) X(17) 1(18) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 25(34) 3(37) 1(38) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 7(21) 2(23) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
speed
wind
hurricane
Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 19
2019-09-17 04:33:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 170233 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tags: number
advisory
forecast
hurricane
Hurricane Kiko Graphics
2019-09-16 22:36:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 20:36:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 20:36:48 GMT
Tags: graphics
hurricane
kiko
hurricane graphics
Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-16 22:35:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 162035 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 There hasn't been a lot of change in Kiko during the day, with the cyclone keeping a small central core and no hints of an eye feature. While there is plenty of outflow, the sharp edge in the cirrus canopy on the north side is indicative of the maintenance of northeasterly shear. Intensity estimates are lower than this morning, and the initial wind speed is reduced to 85 kt. Weakening is anticipated during the next day or so as the shear continues. The forecast is more complicated after that time since the track keeps adjusting southward over warmer water while the shear relaxes. This change results in some models showing re-intensification in a few days, although that's temporary since the shear is forecast to resume at long range. To account for this scenario, the new forecast shows a small bump up in intensity for later this week, and we will just have to see how far south Kiko makes it before making a more significant increase in winds. Kiko continues to move westward at 4 kt to the south of a weak mid- level ridge. The hurricane is forecast to turn to the west- southwest by tomorrow due to a mid-level ridge building in from the central Pacific. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This should result in a general westward to west- northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The majority in the models are south of their previous tracks, starting the south-of-west motion as early as tonight. Thus the new forecast is adjusted south of the last NHC prediction, and this is not a particularly confident situation due to the unsteadiness of most of the guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.3N 124.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 17.3N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
Tags: number
discussion
forecast
hurricane
Sites : [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37] [38] [39] [40] [41] [42] [43] [44] [45] [46] [47] [48] next »