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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)

2019-09-16 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH... As of 2:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Kiko was located near 17.3, -124.1 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 974 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.

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Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 18

2019-09-16 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 162035 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 ...KIKO SLOWLY LOSING STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 124.1W ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 124.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is forecast for Tuesday, followed by a turn back to the west on Wednesday with that motion continuing into Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, then little change in strength is expected on Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18

2019-09-16 22:35:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 162035 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 3(18) 3(21) 1(22) X(22) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 24(29) 6(35) 2(37) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 9(12) 6(18) 2(20) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 18

2019-09-16 22:35:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 162034 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.1W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.1N 124.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.8N 125.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 16.6N 126.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 129.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 17.3N 130.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 17.3N 132.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 124.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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