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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-09-16 16:51:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 161451 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Microwave data and satellite imagery continue to indicate that the core of Kiko is being disrupted. While there is a seemingly favorable outflow pattern, northeasterly shear is undercutting the top layer and preventing the cyclone from having a closed eyewall. Satellite estimates are falling and support a perhaps-generous initial wind speed of 90 kt. The shear is forecast to continue during the next day or so, which should promote further weakening. After that time, the shear could lessen, although the environment overall is hardly very conducive for strengthening, and this scenario would best support little change in intensity. By Friday-Saturday, model guidance does show an increase in shear, so a more notable weakening could occur. The new NHC intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one, following the trend in the guidance, but is a bit above the model consensus. A fair number of models actually show a weaker cyclone, but in a complex environment, I'd rather be conservative in changing the longer-range intensity forecast. There's no significant track change to report with Kiko. The hurricane is moving westward at 4 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge. By 36 hours, another ridge building to the northwest of the hurricane will begin to steer Kiko to the west-southwest. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while subtropical ridging builds to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This will likely result in a general westward to west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The new forecast track is close to the previous one, on the faster and southern side of the guidance, which has generally been the right place to be with Kiko's track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 17.3N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 16.9N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 16.9N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 17.3N 130.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-16 16:50:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Kiko was located near 17.3, -123.7 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 971 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.
Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 17
2019-09-16 16:50:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 161450 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 ...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.3N 123.7W ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 123.7 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A west-southwestward motion is forecast for Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a turn back to the west on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Kiko is a small tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2019-09-16 16:50:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 161450 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 4( 5) 10(15) 5(20) 4(24) 1(25) X(25) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) 3(11) X(11) 1(12) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 18(23) 10(33) 3(36) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 8(18) 3(21) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 17
2019-09-16 16:50:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 161450 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 126.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 129.1W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 130.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 123.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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