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Hurricane Kiko Graphics
2019-09-16 10:41:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 08:41:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2019 09:29:22 GMT
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-16 10:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160839 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Microwave data and satellite imagery are indicating that northeasterly shear is disrupting the core of hurricane Kiko. There is no eye evident, and the central dense overcast has become less symmetric. A blend of the latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support lowering the initial advisory intensity to 100 kt. Kiko is moving westward at 5 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge. By 36 hours, a ridge building to the northwest of the hurricane will begin to steer it to the west-southwest. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while ridging builds to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This will result in a general west to west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast track was nudged slightly southward, and is in between the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. The northeasterly shear currently impacting Kiko is forecast to persist for the next 24 hours or so. The shear should subside between 24-72 hours, but at the same time, increasing subsidence from the building ridge to the northwest should have a counteractive affect on the lower shear. After 72 hours, an upper level trough approaching from the northwest is expected to cause strong southwesterly shear to affect the cyclone. The official forecast is in general agreement with the various intensity aids, and shows gradual weakening through 36 hours, and then levels off the intensity until 72 hours before resuming a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.2N 123.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 17.2N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 17.3N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019)
2019-09-16 10:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KIKO NOW WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -123.1 with movement W at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.
Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 16
2019-09-16 10:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160839 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 ...KIKO NOW WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 123.1W ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 123.1 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A west-southwestward motion is expected Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a turn back to the west on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Kiko is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2019-09-16 10:39:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 160839 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 15(21) 8(29) 6(35) 2(37) X(37) 15N 125W 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 125W 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 4(14) 2(16) X(16) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 14(34) 6(40) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 11(21) 5(26) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 20N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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