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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-18 12:23:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 180901 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0431 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during the pass several hours. Although the surface center is still situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, the deep convection has expanded in the form of curve bands in the south portion of the cyclone. Based on the increased subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and the improved microwave presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt making the system the tenth named storm of the season. Even though the shear is low and the sea surface temperatures are warm, GOES-16 sounder data and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models indicate that the environment surrounding the cyclone is still a little dry and stable. Therefore, only gradual intensification is forecast. The shear is forecast to increase after 24 hours or so, to the point where it should slow, or halt development, and this is reflected in the official forecast. It should be noted that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 3 to 4 days. Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge, is expected. The NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and lies in the middle of the guidance suite, and hedged toward the HCCA multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-18 12:23:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180858 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Satellite imagery and a 0352 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicate that Lorena has strengthened this morning. Subjective and objective intensity estimates as well as the scatterometer overpass support increasing the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. Although the cloud pattern has improved a bit during the past several hours, moderate northeasterly shear still appears to be impinging on the northern portion of the cyclone. The statistical-dynamical GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS intensity models both indicate that this upper wind pattern will linger the next couple of days. Consequently, gradual strengthening is expected which is consistent with the aforementioned DSHPS and the NOAA HFIP HCCA intensity consensus model, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane in 48 hours. Beyond that period, weakening should commence as the cyclone traverses decreasing oceanic sea surface temperatures and moves within increasing westerly shear. An alternative intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if the center moves onshore in southwestern Mexico which the ECMWF is showing. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/12 kt. A deep-layer ridge extending westward over Mexico from the western Gulf of Mexico is forecast to steer Lorena toward the northwest with a slight reduction in forward speed through day 5. This persistent synoptic steering flow should bring the cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Friday. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one and follows the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus which keeps the cyclone offshore. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-18 11:07:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a 0431 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass indicate that the cyclone has become better organized during the pass several hours. Although the surface center is still situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass, the deep convection has expanded in the form of curve bands in the south portion of the cyclone. Based on the increased subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, and the improved microwave presentation, the initial intensity is raised to 40 kt making the system the tenth named storm of the season. Even though the shear is low and the sea surface temperatures are warm, GOES-16 sounder data and the GFS/ECMWF SHIPS intensity models indicate that the environment surrounding the cyclone is still a little dry and stable. Therefore, only gradual intensification is forecast. The shear is forecast to increase after 24 hours or so, to the point where it should slow, or halt development, and this is reflected in the official forecast. It should be noted that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, within the low to mid-tropospheric steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of the tropical storm. This general motion is expected to continue during the next 3 to 4 days. Afterward, a northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a growing weakness in the aforementioned ridge, is expected. The NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory and lies in the middle of the guidance suite, and hedged toward the HCCA multi-model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 14.1N 47.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.8N 49.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 52.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.8N 54.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 17.9N 57.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 20.2N 64.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 22.8N 68.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 70.2W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 4
2019-09-18 10:57:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 400 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Satellite imagery and a 0352 UTC ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicate that Lorena has strengthened this morning. Subjective and objective intensity estimates as well as the scatterometer overpass support increasing the initial intensity to 50 kt for this advisory. Although the cloud pattern has improved a bit during the past several hours, moderate northeasterly shear still appears to be impinging on the northern portion of the cyclone. The statistical-dynamical GFS and ECMWF Decay SHIPS intensity models both indicate that this upper wind pattern will linger the next couple of days. Consequently, gradual strengthening is expected which is consistent with the aforementioned DSHPS and the NOAA HFIP HCCA intensity consensus model, and Lorena is forecast to become a hurricane in 48 hours. Beyond that period, weakening should commence as the cyclone traverses decreasing oceanic sea surface temperatures and moves within increasing westerly shear. An alternative intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if the center moves onshore in southwestern Mexico which the ECMWF is showing. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/12 kt. A deep-layer ridge extending westward over Mexico from the western Gulf of Mexico is forecast to steer Lorena toward the northwest with a slight reduction in forward speed through day 5. This persistent synoptic steering flow should bring the cyclone near the southwestern coast of Mexico Thursday and Friday. The NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one and follows the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus which keeps the cyclone offshore. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 17.4N 104.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 18.5N 104.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 19.4N 105.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.1N 106.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 21.5N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.2N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 25.6N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN
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Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 23
2019-09-18 10:47:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180847 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019 Humberto's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding with a large ragged eye and surrounded by deep convection. The eye of the hurricane is very near NOAA Buoy 41048 and most likely will passing over it by the time this advisory is being released. The pressure from the buoy has been dropping fast and is now at 961 mb and the sustained winds have reached 58 kt with gusts to 78 kt. Based on satellite appearance and continuity, the initial intensity is kept at 100 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft will check the cyclone in a few hours. Some fluctuations in strength due to a potential eyewall replacement are possible during the next 12 to 24 hours or so. After that time very strong southwesterly wind shear should impact the hurricane resulting in weakening. In 72 hours or earlier, the global models show the system merging with a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast calls for extratropical transition by that time. The official intensity forecast follows the corrected consensus HCCA and is not very different from the previous one. Humberto is accelerating, and satellite fixes yield an initial motion toward the east-northeast or 065 degrees at 14 kt. Humberto is located at the base of a strong mid-to upper-level trough, and the hurricane will likely interact with this amplifying trough. This should force Humberto to turn toward the northeast and north- northeast at a faster forward speed in 24-36 hours. Later in the forecast period, the track guidance indicates that Humberto will turn back toward the east-northeast while becoming embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight and Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected to begin later today. Residents there should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda. 3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 31.7N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 32.7N 67.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 34.8N 63.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 37.5N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 40.0N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 43.0N 53.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0600Z 45.5N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0600Z 52.1N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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