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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 24

2019-09-18 10:47:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180847 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Kiko is trying to recover from all of the shear that affected it for the past few days. An earlier microwave pass showed that most of the convection was confined to the southern semicircle. Over the past few hours, deep convection has been looking a little more organized near the storm's center. Whether or not this is the start of a trend is too early to tell, and a blend of the subjective and objective intensity estimates indicate that the initial intensity remains near 45 kt. Kiko continues to move southwest, or 240/04 kt. There is no change to the forecast track philosophy. Kiko will be steered in a mean westerly trajectory for the next several days by mid-level ridging to the north of the cyclone. Some northward or southward deviations in the forward motion are expected from time to time due to fluctuations in the strength of the ridge. The official forecast is very close to the previous one, and near the multi-model track consensus aids. Kiko is expected to remain in a low shear environment and will soon will be moving over higher oceanic heat content. This should result in gradual strengthening. In a few days, the cyclone will begin to move into a drier and more stable environment which should limit any further intensification during the forecast period. The latest forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near the corrected consensus HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 16.5N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.3N 128.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.6N 129.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 17.2N 130.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 16.7N 132.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 16.0N 135.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 4

2019-09-18 10:44:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 180844 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Mario has done well in fighting off northeasterly shear that continues to impact it, with deep convection extending across the center for much of the night. A recent scatterometer pass indicated that tropical storm force winds now extend up to 80 n mi in the southeast quadrant, and 60 n mi in the northeast quadrant. This pass also indicated that the maximum winds have increased to 40 kt, and this will be the initial advisory intensity. Mario has turned a little to the left, and the initial motion is now 310/09 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it in this general direction through Thursday morning. By late Thursday, a trough digging into the western United States is expected to erode the ridge, and the steering currents will collapse. This will result in a decrease in forward speed and eventually Mario is expected to become nearly stationary through Friday night. By Saturday, the ridge is forecast to rebuild over Mexico, which would result in Mario beginning a north-northwest motion. The official forecast track is high confidence through 72 hours and in the middle of tightly clustered consensus guidance. After 72 hours when the cyclone is expected to begin moving again, the guidance diverges and has shifted a little to the east. The official forecast was also shifted a little to the east, but remains west of the consensus aids during that time frame. The shear affecting Mario is expected to continue for the duration of the forecast period, while tropical cyclone Lorena remains to the northeast. Warm waters and a favorable atmospheric environment aside from the shear should allow for gradual strengthening for the next couple of days, and Mario is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. By Saturday, Mario will begin to move into a drier and more stable environment, while the shear remains. This should cause a weakening trend to begin and continue through the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is similar to the previous one, and is on the higher end of the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 13.7N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 15.7N 112.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 16.4N 112.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 16.7N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 17.5N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 19.0N 113.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 23/0600Z 21.0N 114.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto

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Tropical Storm Lorena Forecast Discussion Number 3

2019-09-18 04:58:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 180258 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Lorena Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 There has been little change in the cloud structure of Lorena since the last advisory, with the storm having a central convective feature and a ragged band in the western semicircle. A recently- received WindSat overpass indicates the low-level center is located near the northwestern edge of the central convection. The initial intensity remains 45 kt in good agreement with a subjective satellite estimate from TAFB. The initial motion is 305/13. A mid- to upper-level ridge over Mexico should steer Lorena generally northwestward with some decrease in forward speed during the forecast period, with the center likely to pass near the southwestern coast of Mexico late Wednesday through Thursday. The guidance has shifted a little to the left since the last advisory, and the new forecast track keeps the center of Lorena a little farther offshore than than the previous forecast. However, any motion to the right of the track would bring the center onshore in southwestern Mexico and cause rapid dissipation. If the center stays offshore, Lorena is forecast to be near the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula by the end of the forecast period. Conditions appear favorable for slow strengthening as Lorena approaches the southwestern coast of Mexico. Based on the forecast track now staying offshore, the new intensity forecast calls for a stronger storm by 48-72 h, with Lorena now forecast to be just under hurricane strength. This peak would be followed by a weakening trend as Lorena gradually moves over cooler water. An alternative intensity forecast is for Lorena to dissipate if the center moves onshore in southwestern Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Lorena is forecast to cause heavy rain over portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco during the next few days. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected along a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico by late Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 15.1N 102.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 16.3N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 17.7N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 18.6N 104.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 19.3N 105.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 20.6N 107.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 22.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 24.5N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 22

2019-09-18 04:56:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180256 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Humberto has an impressive presentation on satellite images, with a large 30-40 n mi diameter eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating the hurricane found SFMR-observed surface winds of 98 kt and peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 111 kt. Based on these observations, the current intensity was set at 100 kt, which made the system a major hurricane. Some fluctuations in strength due to a potential eyewall replacement are possible during the next 24 hours or so, but strong southwesterly shear should result in a weakening trend to commence on Thursday. In 72 hours, the global models show the system merging with a frontal zone so the NHC forecast calls for extratropical transition by that time. The official intensity forecast follows the model consensus. Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the motion continues to be east-northeastward or 075/10 kt. Humberto is likely to turn toward the northeast and north-northeast at a faster forward speed in 24-36 hours as it interacts with a strong mid-level trough at mid-latitudes to its north and northeast. Later in the forecast period, the track guidance indicates that Humberto will turn back toward the east-northeast as it moves in tandem with the mid-latitude trough over the north Atlantic. The official forecast is in close agreement with the simple and corrected consensus models, TVCA and HCCA. Key Messages: 1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by local officials. 2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda. 3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 31.3N 71.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 32.0N 68.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 33.4N 65.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 38.6N 60.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 42.5N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z 44.0N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0000Z 49.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 3

2019-09-18 04:52:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 385 WTNT45 KNHC 180252 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 Convection associated with Tropical Depression Ten has increased and become better organized since the last advisory, and various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are now in the 35-40 kt range. However, just-received ASCAT-C data indicates that, despite this increase in organization, the surface winds have not yet reached 35 kt. Based on this, the cyclone remains a 30 kt depression for this advisory. The initial motion is now 285/9. The cyclone is to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge, and this feature should steer the system generally west-northwestward with an increase in forward speed during the next 3-4 days. Near the end of the forecast period, the cyclone should approach a weakness in the ridge and turn more northwestward. The track guidance is in generally good agreement with this scenario, with the GFS near the northern edge of the guidance and the HWRF remaining near the southern edge. The new forecast track lies a little to the south of the center of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model. The depression should be in an environment of light shear and over warm water for the next 24-36 h, which should allow steady strengthening during that time. The shear is forecast to increase after 36 h to the point where it may at least slow development, and this is reflected in slight changes from the previous forecast. The new intensity forecast is near the intensity consensus through 48 h, and then is above the consensus from 72-120 h. It should be noted that the forecast still calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 13.7N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 14.4N 48.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 15.3N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 16.2N 53.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 19.5N 62.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 22/0000Z 21.5N 67.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 23/0000Z 24.5N 70.5W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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