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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 22

2019-09-17 22:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172038 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Convection has been struggling near the center of Kiko today, with only some re-development near the core of the cyclone during the past couple of hours. There's a pretty big disparity in the initial wind speed estimates this afternoon. Recent ASCAT data supports 40-45 kt, while other estimates are still near hurricane- force. Weighing the scatterometer data heavier than most gives an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory. Kiko is on track toward the west-southwest, steered by a ridge extending from the central Pacific. The forecast continues to shift to the south with time, with a stronger ridge anticipated, and the model guidance is more consistent in showing two west- southwestward dips, one at the current time and one after day 5. The new NHC track prediction is somewhat south of the previous one, but this time it is fairly close to the model consensus, hopefully indicating that the southward shifts are done for the time being. While the current shear near Kiko should relax later today, it could take some time before the storm can recover from the effects of the shear. Kiko will probably to re-strengthen in a day or so, in part due to the cyclone moving over warmer waters in a low-shear environment. Afterward, there is very little agreement on the long-range upper-level wind forecast, leading to wildly divergent intensity forecasts by day 5 in the models, ranging from a tropical depression to a category 4 hurricane. For now since the track forecast brings Kiko again over warmer waters, a slight increase in wind speed is shown, and this could be conservative at the end of the 5-day period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 16.8N 125.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 16.4N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 126.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 16.1N 127.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 128.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 17.0N 130.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 131.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 16.0N 133.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-09-17 22:38:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 172038 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Thunderstorm activity continues to grow over the center of the cyclone, with a banding feature trying to form in the western semicircle. While the subjective estimates are unchanged from earlier, the objective estimates are rising, which matches the increased convective organization trend on satellites. Thus the initial wind speed is bumped up to 35 kt on this advisory. Mario is moving northwestward, with that general motion anticipated for the next two days due primarily to a mid-latitude ridge centered over northwestern Mexico. A slow west-northwest track is forecast at long-range due to the orientation of the weakening ridge. Global models have come into much better agreement overall, and the new NHC track forecast is shifted to the west during the next few days since the models suggest little-to-no interaction with Tropical Storm Lorena. With the guidance showing less interaction with Lorena, it seems probable that further strengthening will occur in a low-shear, warm-water environment. Interestingly, the guidance is actually lower than this morning, although it is difficult to pinpoint any reasons for the change. I've elected to let the morning forecast ride for one more advisory to see if the guidance comes back upward, and the latest wind speed prediction is at the upper end of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 12.3N 108.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 13.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 14.7N 111.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.8N 112.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.5N 113.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 16.8N 114.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 17.0N 115.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 18.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake

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Tropical Depression Ten Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-09-17 22:34:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 172034 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102019 500 PM AST Tue Sep 17 2019 The organization of the depression has changed little today. Bands of deep convection are located over the southern and southwestern portions of the circulation, but is limited over the remainder of the cyclone. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were unchanged from this morning, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. There has been no change to the intensity forecast reasoning or the forecast itself. The depression is forecast to move over gradually increasing sea surface temperatures and within a generally low vertical wind shear environment. These factors favor strengthening, and the NHC forecast continues to call for the depression to become a tropical storm tonight, and a hurricane before it approaches the northern Leeward Islands. The initial motion estimate is 290/9 kt. The cyclone should move west-northwestward at an increasingly faster forward speed to the south of a strong deep-layer ridge. The track guidance is tightly clustered, except for the latest HWRF run which is much farther south at days 3-5. The latest consensus aids were very close to the previous NHC track, and little overall change to the previous official foreast was needed. Key Messages: 1. The depression is expected to strengthen and be a hurricane when its moves near the northern Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday, although it is too soon to determine if there will be any direct impacts in the islands. Interests there should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 13.4N 45.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 14.1N 46.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 15.0N 48.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 15.9N 51.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 16.9N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 18.9N 60.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 20.9N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 22/1800Z 23.5N 70.5W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Imelda Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-09-17 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 172033 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Imelda Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Shortly after the earlier NHC Special Advisory, the cyclone quickly intensified just before it made landfall near Freeport, Texas around 1800 UTC. A National Ocean Service observing site near Freeport, Texas, reported sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to 41 kt, and a minimum pressure of 1005.6 mb. A Weatherflow station at Surfside Beach also measured sustained winds of 35 kt with a gust to 44 kt. The advisory intensity is set at 35 kt based on recent Doppler velocities within some of the rain bands that are still offshore. Imelda joins a list of several systems in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico that formed and intensified very near the Texas coast. Other recent examples include Allison in 2001 and Humberto in 2007. Thankfully, in this case Imelda made landfall before significant strengthening could occur. Now that the center is moving inland, gradual weakening is expected. It cannot be stressed enough, however, that the primary threat from Imelda remains very heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding that will spread northward into eastern Texas and portions of western Louisiana during the next day or so. Imelda is moving northward at about 6 kt. The cyclone should continue to move slowly northward to north-northwestward around the western side of a mid-level ridge over the Tennessee Valley until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The updated NHC track forecast has been nudged eastward but remains near the center of the tightly clustered track guidance. Key Messages: 1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and Galveston areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 29.3N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 30.1N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1800Z 30.8N 95.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0600Z 31.4N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/1800Z 32.1N 95.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Depression Eleven Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-09-17 19:06:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171706 TCDAT1 Tropical Depression Eleven Special Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112019 1200 PM CDT Tue Sep 17 2019 Satellite, radar, and surface data show that the area of low pressure near the Upper Texas coast has become better defined this morning. The associated deep convection has also become better organized, and winds from the Houston Doppler Radar support an initial intensity of 30 kt. Based on these data, advisories are being initiated on a tropical depression. The system has very little time left over water in which to strengthen, but given the recent increase in organization, the system is forecast to become a tropical storm before it moves inland. As a result, a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for a portion of the Upper Texas coast. Regardless of the intensity of the system, the primary threat associated is flooding rainfall that is expected over portions of eastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana over the next day or two. The initial motion estimate is 005/6 kt. The cyclone should move inland very soon, and a general northward motion around the western side of a mid-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley should continue through tonight. The system is forecast to turn north- northwestward on Wednesday and that general motion is forecast to continue until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast follows the solution of the majority of the dynamical models. Key Messages: 1. This system is likely to produce life-threatening flash flooding along portions of the Upper Texas Coast, including the Houston and Galveston areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1700Z 28.7N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 29.4N 95.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 18/1200Z 30.1N 95.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 19/0000Z 30.7N 95.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 19/1200Z 31.3N 96.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown

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