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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 20
2019-09-17 10:52:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170852 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2019 The northeasterly shear impacting Kiko has still not let up. Satellite imagery shows an irregular shaped central dense overcast with the anvils being forced downshear. A blend of the latest subjective and objective intensity estimates suggest the initial intensity has decreased to 70 kt, and this value may be a little generous based on a recent scatterometer pass. Kiko is moving slowly westward. All of the track guidance indicate that a turn to the west-southwest should be commencing very soon as the cyclone becomes steered by a mid-level ridge to its northwest. This steering pattern should remain in place for the next couple of days, before the ridge weakens and Kiko becomes steered to the west to west-northwest by a ridge to its northeast. Late in the forecast period, a new ridge should develop to the northwest of Kiko, causing another turn to the west-southwest. All the while, the steering currents will be fairly weak, resulting in a slow forward motion for the next several days. The official NHC forecast was adjusted only slightly to the south through 72 hours due to a shift in the consensus aids. The shear is expected to weaken Kiko to a tropical storm later today. By tonight, this shear is expected to diminish, which could allow for some re-strengthening. However, moderately stable air surrounding the system, subsidence from the ridge to the northwest, and marginal sea surface temperatures should keep the strengthening at a minimum before the shear returns in a couple of days. This re-strengthening is forecast by most of the guidance, and although the NHC forecast makes Kiko a hurricane again, the forecast intensity is a little lower than some of the most reliable consensus aids during that time period. Once the shear returns, Kiko is expected to begin weakening once again and should become a tropical storm by 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.2N 124.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 16.9N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 16.7N 126.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 16.6N 127.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 16.8N 128.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 17.5N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 17.7N 131.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 17.0N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-17 10:45:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170845 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 The cloud pattern continues to be rather impressive, but the eye is ragged looking and less defined than a few hours ago. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed significantly and support an initial intensity of 80 kt. Another reconnaissance plane will check the hurricane's structure in the morning. Humberto is expected to continue to moving over warm waters for the next few days, and intensity guidance as well as global models strengthen the hurricane a little more. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a major hurricane in about 24 to 36 hours. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to be hostile, resulting in weakening. By day 5, if not sooner, the cyclone should become embedded within a frontal zone and begin to acquire extratropical characteristics at that time. Satellite fixes indicate that the initial motion continues toward the east-northeast or 075 degrees at 7 kt. Humberto is well embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this general motion with a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed is forecast for the next 5 days. Track models are in good agreement with this solution, and the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance envelope. It is also very similar to the previous official forecast. It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda. Interests should not focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the right could bring the center near or over the island. Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by Wednesday and will be affecting portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 30.6N 74.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 31.6N 70.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 38.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 42.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/0600Z 44.0N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Avila
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-17 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170234 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Kiko continues to gradually lose strength. Satellite images show a less organized central dense overcast feature with no evidence of an eye. There is a sharp edge in the convective pattern on the north side of the system, suggestive of continued northerly wind shear. The initial wind speed is lowered to 75 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Kiko remains a very compact system with its tropical-storm-force winds and rain bands extending only about 50 n mi from the center. Additional weakening seems likely during the next 24 hours due to the continued effects of northerly shear, dry air, and marginally warm SSTs, and the NHC forecast shows Kiko falling below hurricane intensity during that time. The models show Kiko re-strengthening a little or maintaining its intensity on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a region of lower shear. However, weakening should resume by the end of the week when the cyclone moves into a less favorable atmospheric environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Kiko continues to only crawl westward in relatively weak steering currents. A ridge building to the northwest of Kiko over the central Pacific is forecast to steer the cyclone west-southwestward on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken allowing Kiko to turn westward or west-northwestward later this week, followed by another turn to the southwest by the end of the forecast period. Regardless of the details of the track forecast, the bottom line is that Kiko is expected to continue its slow trek for several more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 17.2N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 18
2019-09-17 04:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170232 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Humberto continues to have an impressive overall appearance on satellite imagery, although the eye is a bit ragged looking. Earlier radar images from the NOAA P-3 aircraft showed that the eyewall was somewhat fragmented. A last-minute observation of 700-mb flight-level winds of 86 kt from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, outbound to the west of the eye, is roughly consistent with a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. Humberto should continue to traverse warm waters for the next couple of days, and much of the numerical guidance shows intensification in the short term. Therefore the official forecast, like the previous one, continues to call for the system to become a major hurricane within the next day or so. This is similar to the intensity model consensus. By 48 hours, the shear should become very strong and a weakening trend will likely be underway. By day 5, if not sooner, the ECMWF global model shows the system embedded within a frontal zone so Humberto is forecast to be extratropical at that time. The eye has been wobbling over the past few hours, but a smoothed estimate of the motion is just north of east or 075/7 kt. Humberto should continue to move along the northern side of a subtropical ridge with a gradual increase in forward speed for the next couple of days. After that, the hurricane should turn northeastward and north-northeastward with some additional acceleration in response to a strong mid-tropospheric trough near Atlantic Canada. Around the end of the forecast period, the global models differ significantly as to how far north into the Atlantic Humberto will move. The official forecast leans toward the ECMWF and corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda. Interests should not focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the right could bring the center near or over the island. Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by late Tuesday, and affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 30.3N 75.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 31.6N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 32.8N 66.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 37.1N 60.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 40.5N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 43.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 17
2019-09-16 22:51:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 718 WTNT44 KNHC 162051 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Humberto this afternoon found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt in the western quadrant, along with SFMR surface winds of 71-72 kt, which is an increase in the winds in this part of storm since the earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight. The NOAA aircraft also measured a central pressure of 972 mb, down 4 mb from the previous flight. A combination of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates of 90 kt and the aircraft data support an initial intensity of 80 kt. The initial motion estimate remains east-northeastward or 070/06 kt. Humberto made a wobble to the north during the past few hours, but has now wobbled toward the east, which is an indication that the hurricane's inner core is continuing to consolidate and contract. That being said, the latest model guidance is in even better agreement with and more convergent about the previous forecast track. Thus no significant changed were required through 72 hours. Thereafter, the models are also now in better agreement that Humberto will not slow down as much as previously expected, and the hurricane is forecast to gradually lift out and accelerate to the northeast on days 4 and 5 when Humberto is well to the northeast of Bermuda. No significant track changes were made to the previous advisory track through 48 hours, with the track having been nudged southward slightly on days 3-5 in agreement with the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE. Humberto has continued to strengthen at a rate of 20 kt per 24 hours, and I see no physical reasons why this trend should not continue for another 24-36 hours. By 48 hours and beyond, the hurricane will be entering the right-rear quadrant of a strong upper-level jet maximum that could briefly impart some additional baroclinic forcing on the cyclone, helping it to maintain its intensity or at least slow down the weakening process. By day 3 and beyond, however, the wind shear becomes prohibitively hostile at more than 50 kt, which should cause the central deep convection to erode, resulting in significant weakening. On day 5, extratropical transition over the colder north Atlantic waters is forecast to begin as Humberto interacts and possibly merges with a strong cold front. Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by late Tuesday, and affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 30.2N 75.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 30.4N 74.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 30.8N 73.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 31.2N 71.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 32.0N 68.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 36.0N 61.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 40.1N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 21/1800Z 41.7N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Stewart
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