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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 16
2019-09-16 10:39:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160839 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Microwave data and satellite imagery are indicating that northeasterly shear is disrupting the core of hurricane Kiko. There is no eye evident, and the central dense overcast has become less symmetric. A blend of the latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support lowering the initial advisory intensity to 100 kt. Kiko is moving westward at 5 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level ridge. By 36 hours, a ridge building to the northwest of the hurricane will begin to steer it to the west-southwest. This ridge is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while ridging builds to the north and northeast of the cyclone. This will result in a general west to west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast track was nudged slightly southward, and is in between the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. The northeasterly shear currently impacting Kiko is forecast to persist for the next 24 hours or so. The shear should subside between 24-72 hours, but at the same time, increasing subsidence from the building ridge to the northwest should have a counteractive affect on the lower shear. After 72 hours, an upper level trough approaching from the northwest is expected to cause strong southwesterly shear to affect the cyclone. The official forecast is in general agreement with the various intensity aids, and shows gradual weakening through 36 hours, and then levels off the intensity until 72 hours before resuming a weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.2N 123.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 17.2N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0600Z 17.3N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-09-16 04:37:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 147 WTNT44 KNHC 160237 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 700 mb flight-level wind data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Humberto indicate that the system's intensity is now 65 kt. This is also supported by Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, and it makes the cyclone the third hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic season. Humberto's cloud pattern has continued to gradually become better organized, with increasing coverage and intensity of deep convection, and pronounced upper-level outflow over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The hurricane is expected to traverse warm Gulf Stream waters for the next several days, but the dynamical models forecast a significant increase in southwesterly vertical shear through 72 hours. In spite of the latter unfavorable factor, the numerical guidance generally shows intensification. This is likely at least partially due to some baroclinic forcing caused by a strong mid-latitude trough to the north and northeast of Humberto. The official forecast is a blend of the latest simple and corrected consensus models and is very similar to the previous one. Humberto continues to move very slowly and the latest aircraft and satellite center fixes indicate that the motion is now northeastward or 040/3 kt. The hurricane has just rounded the western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone and steering currents are likely to remain weak for the next couple of days. An east-northeastward track with a very gradual increase in forward speed is expected for much of the period while Humberto moves between the subtropical high and stronger westerlies associated with the trough to the north. The new NHC track forecast is a little slower than the previous one in 4-5 days, but not as slow as the latest ECMWF and GFS global model runs. Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 29.4N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 29.8N 77.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 30.1N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 30.8N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 31.8N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 35.0N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 39.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-09-16 04:32:23| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160232 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Kiko has lost some organization this evening. The eye of the hurricane has been filling, and the convective pattern is not as symmetric as it was earlier today. The initial intensity is lowered only slightly to 110 kt, following a blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates, but this could be a little generous. Recent ASCAT data indicate that although Kiko is a powerful hurricane, its wind field is quite compact. Based on that data, Kiko's tropical-storm-force winds extend no more than 50 n mi from the center, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend up to 20 n mi from the center. The hurricane is moving westward at about 7 kt, steered by a narrow subtropical ridge to its north. This motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected for about 24 hours. The models all depict Kiko bending to the west-southwest late Monday and Tuesday in response to a ridge building to its northwest. After that time, the model solutions diverge considerably with some taking Kiko to the northwest and others more westward or southwestward. The NHC official track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance envelope, and the bottom line is that Kiko will likely be moving slowly over the eastern Pacific waters during the next several days. The intensity models all show Kiko gradually weakening through the forecast period. Some of this weakening is likely to be a result of upwelling due to its expected slow motion and perhaps intrusions of dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and generally follows the guidance of the intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 122.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 13
2019-09-15 22:51:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 152051 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019 Humberto's convective structure continues to improve in satellite imagery and reflectivity data from the Melbourne NOAA Doppler weather radar, including intermittent appearances of a closed eye. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Humberto this afternoon found SFMR winds of 58-59 kt in the northeastern quadrant outside of the heaviest rain areas, and that the pressure had fallen 4 mb during the past 2 hours, now down to 989 mb. Based on these data, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt. The initial motion estimate is now 360/05 kt. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Humberto is likely located on or near an east-west oriented ridge axis, and a sharp turn toward the northeast is likely during the next 6-12 hours. The latest NHC model guidance remains highly convergent on the previous forecast track and continues to show the cyclone gradually being accelerated toward the northeast and east-northeast during the 24-120 hour period. The large deep-layer trough and associated cold front that will be digging southward out of eastern Canada and the northeastern United States is forecast by the ECMWF model to develop a cutoff low over the northwestern Atlantic that results in some binary interaction with Humberto on day 5. However, this is a new development and is considered to be an outlier scenario at this time. The new forecast track is similar to the previous advisory and lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus track models. Likewise, there is no significant change to previous intensity forecast. All of the available model guidance continues to support steady strengthening for the 3 days. In 48-72 hours, Humberto is forecast to be moving into the right-rear quadrant of a strong, anticyclonically curved 300-200 mb jet maximum. The associated strong baroclinic/dynamical forcing is expected to produce strong pressure falls and strengthening despite the hostile vertical wind shear conditions of at least 30 kt. On days 4 and 5, the combination of slightly cooler waters, drier and more stable air, and much stronger vertical shear of 40-50 kt should cause steady weakening despite the favorable jetstream dynamics. The previous NHC intensity forecast remains unchanged, and continues to show Humberto reaching its peak intensity in 72 hours, coincident with the warmest sea-surface temperatures and strongest jetstream dynamical forcing. Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 29.3N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 29.8N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 30.1N 76.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 30.4N 75.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 30.7N 73.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 31.7N 68.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 35.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 39.6N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 14
2019-09-15 22:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019 The satellite presentation of Kiko is improving again during the past couple of hours after the system was looking less organized shortly after the advisory. Overall, the hurricane continues to have a distinct eye and very deep convection in the eyewall. The initial wind speed will remain 115 kt, which is closest to the latest TAFB fix. While there have been no changes to Kiko's forward motion, westward at about 6 kt, the track forecast is changing a fair bit in this advisory. The long-expected weakness in the subtropical ridge in a couple of days continues to have less influence on the forecast path of the hurricane with the bulk of the models shifting southward and slower on this cycle. In addition, the orientation of the ridge extending from the central Pacific could even cause a slightly south-of-west track. The new NHC prediction is adjusted to the south and slower than the previous one, but the UKMET, ECMWF and corrected consensus models are all even farther south, suggesting further modifications could be necessary later. The changes to the track forecast will keep Kiko over warmer water longer than initially thought. However, it is still forecast to move at only about 4 kt by tomorrow-- slow enough to cause significant upwelling under the central core. Thus gradual weakening is anticipated, although the new forecast is at or above the model consensus for the next few days. The only notable difference at long range is a higher forecast intensity, mostly due to the track shifting south about a degree, which keeps the cyclone out of more marginal water temperatures with less shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 17.2N 121.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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