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Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 3

2019-09-13 04:40:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 130240 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A pair of recent microwave overpasses (AMSR-2 at 2055 UTC and SSMIS at 0020 UTC) revealed that Kiko has not become any better organized since this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is somewhat limited near the center of the tropical cyclone, though this is likely related to diurnal variations in convection, and convection will probably increase again overnight. Subjective and objective intensity estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, so the intensity has been maintained at 35 kt, as a compromise of the various methods. Despite its short-term lack of organization, Kiko will likely strengthen during the next 2 or 3 days. It is located within an environment consisting of low shear, sufficient moisture, and warm SSTs. All of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening, and the only difference between the models is the rate at which Kiko will intensify. The NHC forecast has not been substantially changed and still calls for Kiko to become a hurricane over the weekend. It is also near the high side of the intensity model envelope, especially between 24 and 72 h. By 72 h, the cyclone should reach cooler waters and begin to encounter drier air. Weakening will likely begin around that time and continue into mid-week. Kiko's center appears to have jumped slightly to the north, or perhaps even re-formed, but a 12-h estimate yields an initial motion of 300/9 kt. The models remain in very good agreement that the tropical storm will move generally westward to west-northwestward throughout the forecast period, steered primarily by a mid-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted northward, mainly due to the farther north initial position of Kiko, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-09-12 22:46:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 494 WTNT44 KNHC 122046 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019 The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after consultation with the meteorological service of that country. The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast. With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly uncertain, more than usual I would say. Key Messages: 1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72 hours. 2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 14/0600Z 26.5N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 120H 17/1800Z 31.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Avila

Tags: number discussion potential tropical

Tropical Storm Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 2

2019-09-12 22:45:04| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 122044 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system. Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt. The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific. There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model consensus. The model trend has been to keep the system moving faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has been sped up to become more in line with current consensus solutions. Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days, with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2019-09-12 16:52:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 582 WTPZ43 KNHC 121452 TCDEP3 Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019 An overnight scatterometer pass depicted an elongated circulation associated with this disturbance. Recent satellite imagery suggest the system has likely become better organized since the scatterometer, as can be seen in better defined curved banding features. Thus all indications are that a tropical depression has developed, with an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt derived from TAFB/SAB fixes. The depression has an initial motion off to the west-northwest around 11 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific. A bit more uncertainty develops by early next week with regards to how the system potentially interacts with a weakness in the ridge. While the track is of less confidence by this time, what does appear more certain is that the system should move more slowly. The NHC forecast track generally stays close to the model consensus. Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to remain within a favorable environment for intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. Model guidance is in good agreement that the system should become a tropical storm within a day, and a hurricane over the weekend. There is some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days, with respectable rapid intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance. For now, since it is unknown how much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit more conservative, but above the model consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over cooler waters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Chenard/Blake

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 29

2019-09-10 16:44:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019 759 WTNT43 KNHC 101444 TCDAT3 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019 Gabrielle has now completed its transition to an extratropical cyclone this morning based on the latest GOES-16 satellite imagery. The center of the storm has now become exposed with convection displaced to the north of the center, and a well-defined baroclinic zone has become established in association with the low center. Thus Gabrielle is now an extratropical low, and this is the latest advisory on this system. The intensity remains 45 knots based on scatterometer data and TAFB Dvorak intensity estimates. Models are in excellent agreement that the cyclone will move northeastward and slowly weaken through midweek with the system evolving into an open trough and dissipating beyond 36 hours prior to reaching the British Isles. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 43.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 11/0000Z 45.9N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 11/1200Z 49.2N 25.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 12/0000Z 52.5N 16.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hamrick/Blake

Tags: number discussion forecast cyclone

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