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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 23
2019-09-09 04:32:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 090232 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 Gabrielle's cloud pattern has not become better organized since earlier today. The central convection has become a little more fragmented, and the center is estimated to be near the northern side of the main area of convection. There is a well-defined upper-level outflow jet over the southern portion of the circulation. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB, although this may be generous given a recent ASCAT overpass of the storm. Gabrielle's window for additional strengthening should soon close, since the cyclone will be over warm waters for less than 24 hours, and the dynamical models indicate a significant increase in vertical shear during the next day or so. Therefore, only a slight short-term increase in strength seems likely. The official intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement with the latest corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. By 48 hours, the global models depict the cyclone as embedded within a baroclinic zone over the mid-latitudes of the Atlantic. Therefore, the official forecast shows Gabrielle becoming extratropical by that time. By 96 hours, the system should become absorbed by a large low pressure system at high latitudes. The initial motion is northward, or 360/13 kt. The track forecast philosophy is basically unchanged. Over the next 1 to 2 days, Gabrielle should turn northeastward and accelerate as it moves around the northwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered near the Azores. Later on, the cyclone should accelerate further within the mid-latitude west-southwesterly flow. The official forecast is very close to the previous NHC track, and close to the corrected consensus prediction. Based on the ASCAT data, the 34-kt wind radii over the southern semicircle of the circulation were increased a bit. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 36.5N 49.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 38.6N 47.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 41.1N 44.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 43.6N 40.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 46.5N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z 54.5N 18.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 63
2019-09-08 22:40:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 082040 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 63 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence. An ASCAT-B overpass several hours ago showed winds of 55-60 kt to the southeast of the center, and much of this area of wind has moved onshore in western Newfoundland. Based on these developments, the initial intensity is lowered to 55 kt. The global models continue to forecast Dorian to steadily weaken until the cyclone is absorbed by another large extratropical low to its north between 36-48 h. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii. The cyclone continues moving northeastward or 050/20 kt. This general motion should continue through tonight, with the center of Dorian passing near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador on its way into the far north Atlantic. This should be followed by an east-northeastward motion for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is again an update of the previous advisory. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada tonight. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence and western Newfoundland. Tropical-storm-force should continue over portions of Newfoundland. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 51.0N 57.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 09/0600Z 53.2N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/1800Z 55.2N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0600Z 56.8N 37.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 62
2019-09-08 16:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 081453 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 62 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian is now over the northeastern Gulf of St. Lawrence. There are no observations from the area southeast of the center where the strongest winds are likely to be. However, the winds at the nearby land stations are gradually decreasing. Based on this and some decay in the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is lowered to 65 kt. The global models forecast Dorian to steadily weaken until the cyclone is absorbed by another large extratropical low to its north between 36-48 h. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii. The cyclone is now moving northeastward or 035/22 kt. This general motion should continue through this evening, with the center of Dorian passing near or over northwestern Newfoundland or eastern Labrador on its way into the far north Atlantic. This should be followed by an east-northeastward motion for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is again an update of the previous advisory. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland, and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are expected to spread into western Newfoundland this afternoon. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 50.0N 59.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 09/0000Z 52.3N 55.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/1200Z 54.7N 49.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/0000Z 56.2N 41.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 21
2019-09-08 16:52:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 081452 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 Gabrielle continues to show signs of becoming better organized. Deep convection now wraps about two-thirds of the way around the center of circulation, and microwave imagery shows a distinct curved band on the western semicircle. A blend of the various satellite intensity estimates support holding the initial intensity at 50 kt. However, this value may be a little conservative. The tropical storm will continue to be in a moderately favorable environment for intensification over the next 24 hours or so. And, based on the improving presentation of Gabrielle since late last night, some intensification seems likely during that time. After 24 to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly shear will begin to impact the cyclone as a mid-latitude trough approaches the region, and the system will move over cooler waters. This should cause a gradual weakening trend to begin. After 48 hours, Gabrielle is expected to merge with a cold front and become an extratropical cyclone. The official forecast intensity has been increased slightly through 36 hours out of respect for the near term likelihood for intensification. Otherwise, the forecast is similar to the previous one, and is in agreement with the various consensus aids. The initial motion is 330/10kt. Gabrielle will turn to the north later today and then northeast by Monday as the system rounds the western periphery of a mid-level ridge centered near the Azores. Once Gabrielle turns northeastward, it will become embedded in the increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough, which will accelerate the cyclone's forward motion. The official forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the tightly clustered track guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 33.8N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 35.6N 49.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 38.4N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 41.2N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 43.7N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 50.1N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 12/1200Z 57.8N 5.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 61
2019-09-08 10:40:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 080840 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number 61 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019 The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian passed very near the Magdalen Islands around 0600 UTC, and is now between the west coast of Newfoundland and Anticosti Island. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the wind field remains quite large, but the peak winds have decreased since yesterday. Therefore, the initial intensity has been set at 70 kt. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful storm through this afternoon, but the global models show steady weakening after the center moves northeast of Newfoundland tonight. The cyclone is moving north-northeastward or 025/23 kt. Dorian should continue north-northeastward today, then turn east- northeastward over the North Atlantic as it remains embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. The dynamical model guidance continues to be in good agreement, and the new official track is essentially an update of the previous advisory. The post-tropical cyclone should should be absorbed by another extratropical low over the North Atlantic in 2 to 3 days. The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) once again provided guidance on the forecast intensity and wind radii. The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern Canada has ended. Key Messages: 1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada today. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia. Hurricane-force winds are still occurring in portions of eastern Nova Scotia and are spreading into western Newfoundland. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 48.5N 61.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/1800Z 50.9N 58.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 09/0600Z 53.6N 52.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 09/1800Z 55.7N 45.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/0600Z 57.0N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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