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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 24

2019-09-07 04:31:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 070231 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Juliette continues to slowly weaken. Cloud tops have gradually warmed since the last advisory and several recent microwave overpasses show that convection is now limited to the eastern half of the cyclone. The intensity has been lowered to 55 kt based on the latest TAFB Dvorak fix. No substantial changes were made to the NHC track or intensity forecasts. Juliette is located over 23-24 deg C waters, and will remain over fairly cool waters for the next several days. Continued weakening appears inevitable and Juliette is forecast to become a remnant low within 48 h. Although the system will reach marginally warmer waters to the west by the end of the forecast period, it will have weakened enough that significant regeneration is unlikely at that time. The initial motion remains west-northwestward at 11 kt. Juliette should turn westward on Saturday as it weakens further and is steered entirely by low-level easterly flow. All of the models forecast that the tropical storm/remnant low will then continue westward for several days thereafter. The NHC forecast is very close to the East Pacific multi-model consensus TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0300Z 23.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 54

2019-09-06 23:01:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 062101 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 54 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Dorian has become better organized since it moved into the Atlantic this morning, and satellite imagery shows that it now has a well-defined eye embedded in a central dense overcast along with a large outer banding feature in the northwestern semicircle. The last aircraft data near 1700 UTC indicated this had not yet resulted in intensification. However, the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are trending upward, and the advisory intensity of 80 kt could be conservative. The hurricane currently has excellent outflow over the northern semicircle. The initial motion is now 050/21. Dorian should move quickly northeastward during the next 24-48 h as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough, currently over the eastern Great Lakes. The track guidance has changed little and remains tightly clustered, and only minor adjustments have been made to the previous track. The new forecast track calls for Dorian to pass well southeast of southern New England tonight and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday night. A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic. There has been a significant change to the intensity forecast philosophy. The GFS and ECMWF, which have been forecasting Dorian to transition to a powerful extratropical low, now forecast intensification of the system due to baroclinic processes associated with the aforementioned trough, including very strong upper-level divergence. Given that Dorian is currently a well-organized hurricane and will be south of the Gulf Stream for about the next 18-24 h, it is likely that at least some of this strengthening will occur before Dorian becomes extratropical. The new intensity forecast now calls for Dorian to strengthen as a hurricane during the next 12-24 h, then undergo extratropical transition as it is passing near or over Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The intensities in the new forecast are increased during the first 24 h to reflect this change. Dorian is likely to be a hurricane at landfall in Nova Scotia, but it will cause significant impacts even if it has completed extratropical transition by that time. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast for the next several hours. 2. Regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 36.9N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 39.1N 69.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 42.9N 65.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 47.1N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 50.6N 57.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1800Z 55.5N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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Tropical Storm Juliette Forecast Discussion Number 23

2019-09-06 22:37:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062037 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Deep convection associated with Juliette has continued to gradually decrease in coverage and organization today. The various satellite intensity estimates have continued to slowly decline, and now support an initial intensity of 60 kt. The tropical storm will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable environment during the next 24 to 36 hours. This should result in steady weakening and Juliette is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low in 36 to 48 hours. The system will be moving back over slightly warmer waters later in the forecast period, but westerly shear should prevent any re-organization. Juliette is now moving west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should continue west-northwestward tonight, and then turn westward on Saturday as it weakens and is steered by the low-level easterly flow. The track guidance remains in good agreement but has trended slightly faster once again. The new official forecast was adjusted accordingly, and is once again near the TVCE multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 23.4N 124.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

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Tropical Storm Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 13

2019-09-06 22:36:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062036 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019 500 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019 Gabrielle has become somewhat better organized during the past few hours, with a better-defined surface circulation moving closer to a large burst of convection in the northern semicircle. There has been little change in the intensity estimates, so the initial wind speed will stay 40 kt on this advisory. The storm continues to move to the northwest at about 15 kt. A large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle is forecast to build westward, forcing the tropical cyclone to turn west- northwestward on Saturday. After that time, southwesterly flow ahead of Hurricane Dorian should turn Gabrielle quickly northward and northeastward by early next week. Other than some minor speed differences, the models continue to be tightly packed. The new NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and it lies near the NOAA corrected-consensus model. Southerly shear currently near Gabrielle is forecast to relax by late tomorrow, at about the same time that it moves over very warm waters near 29C. This should promote strengthening, and it is possible that Gabrielle could intensify quickly near recurvature. By 96 h, the cyclone should move north of the Gulf Stream, with increasing shear. These conditions should cause a fast extratropical transition between 96-120 h. The new NHC prediction is raised at 48 and 72 hours, and it should be noted that quite a few models show Gabrielle becoming a category 2 hurricane at some point during that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 27.9N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 29.3N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 30.8N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 32.2N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 33.9N 48.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 38.5N 46.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 44.0N 38.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 53.0N 23.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 53

2019-09-06 16:57:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 061457 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 53 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019 The eye of Dorian made landfall over Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, at about 1235 UTC and then moved quickly northeastward into the Atlantic. A combination of surface observations and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that the maximum winds are near 80 kt and the central pressure is near 957 mb. The hurricane remains well-organized in satellite imagery, with the 30 n mi wide eye surrounded by cold convective banding. The initial motion is now 045/15. Dorian should accelerate northeastward during the next 24-36 h as a mid- to upper-level trough, currently over the U.S. Great Lakes, approaches the system and accelerates the steering flow. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, and the new track forecast is changed little in either direction or speed from the previous forecast. The new forecast calls for Dorian to move away from the North Carolina coast today, pass well southeast of southern New England tonight and Saturday, and then move over Nova Scotia Saturday or Saturday night. A continued northeastward motion is then expected to bring the cyclone across Newfoundland into the far north Atlantic. Dorian is expected to slowly weaken due to increased shear and entrainment of drier air during the next 24 h or so. After that time, the hurricane is expected to undergo extratropical transition and become a large and powerful post-tropical low. It is unclear whether the transition will be complete before Dorian reaches Nova Scotia. However, whether Dorian is a hurricane or a hurricane-force extratropical low, it is expected to bring strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rains to portions of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. The new NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast, and it follows the trend of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue along portions of the North Carolina coast, portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay for the next several hours. 2. Areas of flash flooding, some of which may be significant and life-threatening, will continue into early afternoon across portions of northeastern North Carolina into far southeast Virginia. 3. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 35.7N 74.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 37.4N 72.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 40.7N 67.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 44.9N 63.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 08/1200Z 48.8N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 09/1200Z 54.5N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

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